“特朗普主义”再兴起的政治逻辑及外交影响  

The Political Logic of the Resurgence of Trumpism and Its Impact on US Foreign Policy

作　　者：史泽华[1] Shi Zehua

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2025年第2期67-88,149,共23页

基　　金：北京外国语大学基本科研业务费校级自主选题重点项目“美国社会撕裂的周期性逻辑及外交影响研究”(项目批准号:2024JJ016)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：“特朗普主义”通常是指特朗普个人及其从众意识形态、政治风格、政治运动及政策行为的复合体,具有典型的右翼民粹主义属性。过去10年间,在美国经济和社会危机持续深重的背景下,“特朗普主义”从初兴到再兴,经历了从思想到组织、再到行动策略的多重蜕变。从思想特征看,“特朗普主义”是美国右翼民粹主义与保守主义的复合物,其再兴起意味着右翼民粹主义思潮对传统保守政治渗透侵蚀的不断深化。从组织特征来看,“特朗普主义”再兴起表现为具有右翼民粹主义风格的新内阁、新组织、新智库的出现,标志着右翼民粹派政治组织模式从民粹式“个人英雄”路径向官僚化“集团政治”路径的整体转向。从行为特征看,“特朗普主义”的再兴起预示着右翼民粹派的行动模式从分散的社会怨恨政治向目标明确的理性决策模式的渐进转型。美国右翼阵营各派系之间难以调和的深层矛盾、特朗普及右翼民粹派的集体非理性心理状态,让这种多维度的深化、转向和转型过程非常艰难。特朗普第二任期美国内外政策将走向更坚定也更极端的右翼民粹主义道路。Trumpism is usually understood as a complex of the ideology,political style,political movements,and policy behaviors of Trump and his followers,with typical characteristics of right-wing populist ideology.In the past decade,against the backdrop of the continued and deep economic and social crisis in the United States,Trumpism has undergone multiple transitions from ideology to organization and then to action strategies,from its initial rise to its resurgence.Ideologicaly,Trumpism is a complex of American right-wing populism and modern conservatism,and its resurgence means that the right-wing populist ideology is infiltrating and eroding traditional conservative politics.Organizationally the resurgence of Trumpism is manifested in the emergence of a new cabinet and several new organizations and think tanks with a right-wing populist style,marking the overall shift of the organizational model of the right-wing populist political elite from the populist“individual hero”path to the bureaucratic“group politics”path.From the perspective of behavioral characteristics,the resurgence of Trumpism heralds the gradual transformation of the right-wing populist action model from loose and decentralized social resentment politics to a rational decision-making model with clear goals.The irreconcilable deep-seated contradictions between the various factions of the American right-wing camp and the collective irrational psychological state of Trump and the right-wing populists make this multi-dimensional transformation process difficult.The U.S.domestic and foreign policies will move towards a more determined and extreme right-wing populist path.

关 键 词：特朗普 右翼民粹主义 保守政治 共和党 美国外交 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学] D771.2[政治法律—外交学]