基于水均衡分析与记忆曲线模型估算流域地下水径流量  

Estimating Watershed Groundwater Runoff Using Water Balance Analysis and Memory Curve Model

作　　者：陈子昂 曾献奎[1] 吴吉春[1] CHEN Ziang;ZENG Xiankui;WU Jichun(School of Earth Sciences and Engineering,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学地球科学与工程学院,南京210023

出　　处：《高校地质学报》2025年第1期113-122,共10页Geological Journal of China Universities

基　　金：江苏省省级地质勘查项目(苏财资环[2021]46号);国家自然科学基金面上项目(42477082)联合资助。

摘　　要：地下水循环是全球陆地水循环的重要组成部分,精确描述流域地下水径流量对查明流域地下水循环过程至关重要。文章基于水文气象遥感数据,通过构建蒸发、地表径流等记忆曲线模型,结合水量平衡方程,并进行参数不确定性分析,估算了流域降水释放的地下水径流量。以巴西热基蒂尼奥尼亚河流域(Jequitinhonha river basin)为研究区,结果表明:记忆曲线模型能较好地模拟研究区蒸发、地表径流与陆地水储量变化过程。研究区蒸发模拟值与基于GLEAM的蒸发观测数据拟合较好,识别期与验证期R^(2)分别为0.74与0.81;地表径流模拟值与观测值在识别期R^(2)为0.69,在验证期为0.63;陆地总水储量变化(TWSC)模拟值与GRACE TWSC序列在识别期与验证期的R^(2)分别为0.73与0.6。同时,基于地下水径流记忆曲线模型,估算研究区降水在各月累积释放的地下水径流量在50~350 m^(3)/s之间波动,呈现明显的年内变化规律。研究成果为大尺度、地下水观测数据缺乏的流域地下水径流量估计提供了一种新思路。Groundwater circulation is a crucial component of the global terrestrial water cycle,and accurately describing basin groundwater runoff is essential for understanding the groundwater circulation process within a basin.Using hydrometeorological remote sensing data,this study estimates the groundwater runoff released by precipitation in a basin by constructing memory curve models for evaporation and surface runoff,integrating them with the water balance equation,and conducting parameter uncertainty analysis.Taking the Jequitinhonha River basin in Brazil as the study area,the results indicate that the memory curve model can effectively simulate the processes of evaporation,surface runoff,and terrestrial water storage change in the study area.The simulated evaporation values fit well with GLEAM-based evaporation observations,with R^(2)values of 0.74 and 0.81 for the calibration and validation periods,respectively.The simulated surface runoff values had R^(2)values of 0.69 for the calibration period and 0.63 for the validation period when compared to observations.The simulated total water storage change(TWSC)values had R^(2)values of 0.73 and 0.6 for the calibration and validation periods,respectively,when compared to the GRACE TWSC series.Furthermore,based on the groundwater runoff memory curve model,the estimated monthly cumulative groundwater runoff released by precipitation in the study area fluctuated between 50 and 350 m^(3)/s,showing a clear intra-annual variation pattern.This study provides a new approach for estimating basin groundwater runoff in large-scale areas lacking groundwater observation data.

关 键 词：记忆曲线 MCMC方法 水量平衡方程 地下水径流量 

分 类 号：P641[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]