徐州市碳排放影响因素及情景预测  

Influencing Factors and Scenario Prediction of Carbon Emissions in Xuzhou City

作　　者：柯舜方 黄成 王书宇 李冰 王冉[1] Ke Shunfang;Huang Cheng;Wang Shuyu;Li Bing;Wang Ran(School of Resources and Geosciences,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《黑龙江科学》2025年第3期40-43,共4页Heilongjiang Science

摘　　要：基于徐州市2007-2021年的面板数据,对徐州市碳排放进行核算与情景分析;利用STIRPAT模型,运用岭回归分析人口数量、城镇化率、经济发展、技术进步与产业结构对碳排放的影响;结合情景分析法对徐州市未来的碳排放情况进行预测模拟。研究结果表明,2007-2021年徐州市碳排放量由2007年的3230万t增长到2021年的6780万t,区域碳排放强度由2007年的1.923 t/万元下降到2021年的0.835 t/万元。在基准情景下,徐州市将在2032年实现碳达峰,峰值为10315万t;在产业结构优化情景、节能情景、经济放缓情景、绿色发展情景与粗放式情景下,徐州市碳排放峰值分别约为9890万t、9679万t、7086万t、6800万t与25178万t,经济放缓情景是徐州市实现碳达峰的最佳路径。Based on the panel data of Xuzhou City from 2007 to 2021,the study accounts and conducts scenario analysis of carbon emission of Xuzhou City;analyzes the influence of population size,urbanization rate,economic development,technological progress and industrial structure on carbon emissions STIRPAT model with ridge regression;and predicts and simulates the future carbon emissions of Xuzhou City with scenario analysis.The results of the study show that the carbon emission of Xuzhou City increases from 32.3 million tons in 2007 to 67.8 million tons in 2021,and the regional carbon emission intensity will decrease from 1.923 tons per million yuan in 2007 to 0.835 tons per million yuan in 2021.In the baseline scenario,Xuzhou City will achieve the peak of carbon in 2032,with the peak value of 103.15 million tons.Under the industrial structure optimization scenario,energy conservation scenario,economic slowdown scenario,green development scenario and crude development scenario,peak carbon emissions in Xuzhou are about 98.9 million tons,96.79 million tons,70.86 million tons,68.00 million tons and 251.78 million tons,respectively.The economic slowdown scenario is the best development path for Xuzhou to achieve peak carbon.

关 键 词：碳排放 STIRPAT模型 徐州市 产业结构 节能 经济放缓 绿色发展 粗放式 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]