基于“量—价”框架的长江经济带水资源资产核算及驱动因素分析  

Water resources asset accounting and driver analysis in the Yangtze River Economic Belt based on the "quantity-value" framework

作　　者：李淑琴 沈菊琴[2] 黄昕 张凯泽 LI Shu-qin;SHEN Ju-qin;HUANG Xin;ZHANG Kai-ze(School of Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211106,China;School of Agricultural Science and Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 211106,China;School of Economics and Finance,Hohai University,Nanjing 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,南京211106 [2]河海大学农业科学与工程学院,南京211106 [3]河海大学经济与金融学院,南京211106

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2025年第2期550-568,共19页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：江西省水利科技项目(822056116);国家自然科学基金项目(42301357)。

摘　　要：水资源资产核算是全民所有自然资源资产清查的重要内容,是编制自然资源资产负债表的基本前提。基于区域水资源资产演变循环规律,构建水资源资产的“量—价”核算模型,采用调整系数法、能值分析法、地理探测器模型等方法研究长江经济带水资源资产情况及其空间分异的影响因素。结果表明:(1)研究期间长江经济带水资源资产实物量呈现波动变化趋势,江苏表现最好,湖北次之,贵州和重庆的表现较差;(2)2012—2021年,长江经济带水资源资产价值量的年均涨幅为13.14%,呈现出“下游>中游>上游”的空间分异特征;(3)人口密度是长江经济带水资源资产的主要驱动因素,且因子间的交互作用更能解释其空间分布的地域差异。研究结论有助于厘清水资源资产的形成机理,完善国民经济宏观核算体系,为水资源可持续利用提供有益参考。Accounting for water resources assets is an important part of the inventory of nationally owned natural resources assets,and is a basic prerequisite for the preparation of natural resources balance sheets.This study examines the macroeconomic data of the 11 provincial-level regions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)from 2012 to 2021.It begins by elucidating the natural system of water resources formation and the economic system of water resources asset formation.The concept of potential water resources assets is introduced,and the cyclical patterns of water resources asset evolution are investigated.Then,based on the"quantity-value"framework,the adjusted coefficient method and energy value analysis method are adopted to construct models for the physical quantity and value accounting of regional water resources assets.Finally,an indicator system is designed from economic,social,environmental,and ecological dimensions.The geographic detector model is selected to explore the influencing factors of spatial differentiation of water resources assets.The research findings reveal that:(1)The physical volume of water resources assets in the YREB demonstrates fluctuating changes,reaching a peak of 2734.27 billion m3 in 2019 and a low value of 2548.70 billion m3 in 2020.Specifically,Shanghai,Jiangsu,Hunan,and Yunnan display"N"-shaped trends,while Jiangxi,Hubei,and Guizhou demonstrate"W"-shaped trends.The remaining regions exhibit more moderate trends.(2)The overall value of water resources assets fluctuates,showing an upward trend with an average annual increase of 13.14%.The spatial distribution of water resources asset value exhibits a pattern of"downstream>midstream>upstream"differentiation.(3)Population density is identified as the primary driver of spatial differentiation in water resources assets within the YREB.The cumulative explanatory power of the social subsystem is the highest,indicating that social factors have the greatest influence on the spatial pattern of water resources assets.The research findings c

关 键 词：“量—价”框架 水资源资产实物量 水资源资产价值量 长江经济带 驱动因素 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] F127[经济管理—世界经济]