1854~1860年常熟梅雨重建与特征分析  

Reconstruction and analysis of Mei-yu in Changshu during 1854~1860

作　　者：牛浪 NIU Lang(School of Marxism,Shenzhen Polytechnic University,Shenzhen 518055,China;School of History,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳职业技术大学马克思主义学院,深圳518055 [2]北京师范大学历史学院,北京100875

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2025年第1期203-212,共10页Quaternary Sciences

摘　　要：梅雨是长江中下游地区重要的气候现象,梅雨期长短和梅雨量变化历来受到高度重视。提取《季芝昌日记》中夏季天气记录,重建了1854~1860年江苏常熟夏季降水序列。依据雨日确定梅雨期的方法,得到常熟逐年入梅与出梅时间。在此基础上,对1854~1860年常熟梅雨进行分类,再根据地方志、档案等资料旱涝灾害记载,探讨了常熟梅雨与长三角地区旱涝的联系。结果表明:1)1854~1860年常熟平均入梅日期为6月15日,出梅日期为7月1日;2)1854~1860年常熟梅雨与现代梅雨(1981~2010年)有较大差异,表现为入梅时间提前1 d,出梅时间提前9 d,梅雨期少8 d;3)1854~1860年常熟有3个典型梅雨年,4个异常梅雨年。其中,1854年为丰梅年,1856年为空梅年,1858年为晚梅雨年,1859年为早梅雨年;4)常熟梅雨与长三角地区旱涝虽有密切关系,但并非完全对应,个别年份存在较大差别。本研究结果对了解小冰期末期常熟梅雨变化特征及其长三角地区的年际旱涝灾害具有一定参考价值。Mei-yu is an important meteorological phenomenon in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River;droughts and floods are significantly influenced by the duration of Mei-yu and the variation in total precipitation.Diaries offer a high degree of resolution and reliability,making them an invaluable resource for reconstructing the historical period of Mei-yu.The Ji Zhichang Diary,written by Ji Zhichang in the late Qing Dynasty,records weather conditions and daily life from March 19,1853,to August 22,1860,when he lived in Changshu,Jiangsu Province.According to the diary,the summer precipitation series of Changshu from 1854 to 1860 was reconstructed by extracting summer weather records.From the days of rainfall,the dates of beginning and ending of the Mei-yu period in Changshu can be confirmed.And these data are classified to analyze the relationship between Mei-yu in Changshu and dryness and wetness in the Yangtze Delta region,according to the records of drought and flood disasters in local chronicles and archives.The results showed that:(1)From 1854 to 1860,the average beginning date of Mei-yu was June 15,and the ending date of Mei-yu was July 1.There was a notable difference between 1854 and 1860 when compared with the meteorological observation data of Changshu station from 1981 to 2010.It shows that the beginning date of Mei-yu was advanced by one day,the ending date was advanced by nine days,and the duration was decreased by eight days.(2)Between 1854 and 1860,there were three typical Mei-yu years and four atypical ones.In particular,there were four different Mei-yu years:1854,1856,1858,and 1859.The year 1854 was characterized by an abundance of Mei-yu,while the year 1856 was a shortage of Mei-yu;the year 1858 was characterized by a late Mei-yu,while the year 1859 was an early Mei-yu.(3)Mei-yu in Changshu was closely related to dryness and wetness in the Yangtze Delta region,but it was not completely corresponding,and there were great differences in several years.The main reason for the discrepancies is that

关 键 词：《季芝昌日记》 常熟 梅雨 小冰期 旱涝关系 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]