碳达峰目标下中国交通运输业碳配额分配研究  

Study of Carbon Quota Allocation for China's Transportation Industry under the Carbon Peaking Target

作　　者：刘云龙 辛佳怡 周志洁 LIU Yun-long;XIN Jia-yi;ZHOU Zhi-jie(School of Economics and Management,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学经济与管理学院,重庆市400074

出　　处：《公路》2025年第2期296-303,共8页Highway

摘　　要：交通运输业是碳排放的主要来源之一,在双碳目标的约束下,分解减排任务有助于实现碳减排目标。以碳达峰为目标对交通运输行业进行自上而下的省域碳配额分配研究,通过构建GM(1,1)模型预测全国2022年~2035年的交通碳排放总量,并以2035年预测值为总量限定进行初始省区分解,最后利用ZSG-DEA模型获得最优省域分解方案。结果显示,交通运输业增加值、能耗总量、服务周转量和路网密度4个指标适宜作为交通运输行业碳配额分配的衡量指标;我国省域交通碳配额结果呈现东高西低的特征,其中广东最多,而青海最少。根据研究结果,凝练出交通运输业行业碳排放总量控制和碳排放权分配标准构建的政策建议。The transportation industry is one of the main sources of carbon emissions,and under the constraint of dual-carbon targets,decomposing the emission reduction tasks can help to realize the carbon reduction targets.In the paper,a top-down research on the allocation of provincial carbon quotas in the transportation industry is carried out with the goal of carbon peaking.The GM(1,1)model is constructed to predict the total transportation carbon emissions of China from 2022 to 2035,and taking the predicted value in 2035 as limited total amount,the provincial quota allocation of transportation carbon is carried out.Finally,the optimal provincial decomposition scheme is obtained using the ZSG-DEA model.The results show that four indicators,namely,value added of transportation industry,total energy consumption,service turnover,and road network density,are appropriate for measuring carbon quota allocation in the transportation industry.The results of China's provincial transportation carbon quota shows the value high in the east and low in the west,among which Guangdong Province has the most and Qinghai Province has the least.Based on the results of the study,policy recommendations for the construction of standards for the control of total carbon emissions and carbon emission right allocation in the transportation industry are concluded and put forwarded.

关 键 词：交通工程 交通碳配额分配 灰色预测 ZSG-DEA模型 碳达峰 

分 类 号：U11[交通运输工程] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]