基于逐步Logistic模型的地质灾害紧急避险影响因素分析  

The Analysis of Influencing Factors of Geological Disaster Emergency Avoidance Based on Stepwise Logistic Model

作　　者：王光烨 WANG Guangye(School of Management and Engineering,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学管理工程学院,北京100070

出　　处：《安全》2025年第2期7-14,共8页Safety & Security

摘　　要：为提高地质灾害的综合防治能力,减少人员伤亡和经济损失,选取2017—2023年间的295起地质灾害案例,基于逐步logistic模型的地质灾害紧急避险影响因素分析框架,筛选出影响地质灾害紧急避险的关键因素,构建了影响因素和避险结果之间的量化关系模型。结果表明:地质灾害发生时间、是否开展群测群防、是否提前接到政府部门预警是影响地质灾害紧急避险能否成功的关键因素。研究结果可为加强地质灾害防范应对和防灾避险工作提供参考。This work aims to enhance the comprehensive prevention and control capabilities of geological disasters and to reduce both casualties and economic losses.This study analyzed 295 cases of geological disasters occurring between 2017 and 2023 and developed a framework based on a stepwise logistic model to identify the key factors affecting emergency avoidance.Subsequently,a quantitative relationship model was constructed to examine the correlation between these factors and the avoidance outcomes.The findings suggest that the timing of the disaster,the implementation of mass monitoring and prevention,and the receipt of advance warnings from government agencies are the most critical factors determining the success of emergency avoidance.These findings offer significant insights that could inform the enhancement of strategies for the prevention,response,and mitigation of geological disasters.

关 键 词：地质灾害避险 影响因素 案例研究 逐步回归 LOGISTIC回归 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X43