室内燃气事故致因因素的风险耦合研究  

Risk Coupling Study on Causative Factor of Indoor Gas Accidents

作　　者：王娜[1,2] 孙世梅[1,2] WANG Na;SUN Shimei(School of Emergency Science and Engineering,Jilin Jianzhu University,Changchun Jilin 130118,China;Institute of Accident Prevention Science,Jilin Jianzhu University,Changchun Jilin 130118,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林建筑大学应急科学与工程学院,吉林长春130118 [2]吉林建筑大学事故预防科学研究院,吉林长春130118

出　　处：《安全》2025年第2期36-42,共7页Safety & Security

摘　　要：为提升室内燃气事故的防控能力,首先利用“2-4模型”(24Model)识别室内燃气事故的致因因素,构建室内燃气事故风险指标体系,并对室内燃气事故致因因素进行耦合分析;然后,采用主客观结合的综合赋权法,确定各致因因素的权重,并将其引入耦合度模型进行度量;最后,基于风险解耦思想提出管控措施。结果显示:室内燃气事故中各致因因素间呈高度耦合状态,这表明致因因素间相互作用,导致事故发生的概率及其严重性增加。针对解耦前、解耦中、解耦后3个阶段提出风险管控措施,从机制上降低致因因素间的关联性。研究结果可为室内燃气的安全管理提供理论支撑和实践指导。In order to enhance the prevention and control capabilities for indoor gas accidents,the 24Model is first used to identify the causative factors of indoor gas accidents,construct a risk index system for indoor gas accidents,and conduct a coupled analysis on the causative factors of indoor gas accidents.Then,a comprehensive weighting method that combines subjective and objective factors was used to determine the weights of each causal factor,and the weights were introduced into the coupling degree model for measurement.Finally,the management and control measures are proposed based on the idea of the risk decoupling.The results show that there is a highly coupled state among the causative factors in indoor gas accidents,indicating that the interaction between causative factors increases the probability and severity of accidents.Risk management and control measures were proposed for the three stages of decoupling:pre decoupling,decoupling,and post decoupling,to reduce the correlation between causal factors from a mechanistic perspective.The research results can provide theoretical support and practical guidance for the safety management of the indoor gas.

关 键 词：室内燃气事故 2-4模型 风险耦合 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]