交通基础设施建设与婚姻决策——基于中国高铁开通的经验证据  

Construction of Transport Infrastructure and Marriage Decision:EmpiricalEvidence from the Opening of China’s High-Speed Rail

作　　者：张永冀[1] 陈优雅 热孜亚·巴吾尔江 苏治[2] ZHANG Yongji;CHEN Youya;REZIYA Bawuerjiang;SU Zhi

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理学院,北京100081 [2]中央财经大学统计与数学学院,北京102206 [3]香港城市大学商学院,中国香港999077

出　　处：《上海商学院学报》2025年第1期93-118,共26页Business Economic Review

摘　　要：随着以高铁为代表的交通基础设施建设快速发展,众多学者研究了高铁开通对产业结构、资源配置等经济方面的影响,鲜有文献关注高铁开通对居民个体行为的影响。本文基于全国253个地级市2003年至2018年的城市面板数据,采用了双重差分方法,实证分析高铁开通对城市居民婚姻决策的影响。研究发现:高铁开通会导致当地结婚率下降、离婚率上升,该结论经过一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立;高铁开通对居民婚姻决策的影响在不同经济发展水平、人口规模、性别角色观念、儒家文化的城市之间存在差异。机制分析发现,高铁开通会提升当地城镇化率和房价,从而导致结婚率下降;增加当地居民就业和收入水平,从而导致离婚率上升。本文丰富了有关婚姻决策的影响因素研究,对于研究婚姻决策行为具有一定启示。With the rapid development of transportation infrastructure,represented by highspeed rail,many scholars have studied the macroscopic effects of high-speed rail on industrial structure,resource allocation,and other aspects.However,there is scarce literature that focuses on the impact of high-speed rail on individual behavior.Based on urban panel data from 253 prefecture-level cities in China between 2003 and 2018,this paper adopts the difference-indifferences method to empirically analyze the impact of high-speed rail on marriage decisionmaking among urban residents.The study finds that the opening of high-speed rail results in a decrease in local marriage rates and an increase in divorce rates among urban residents,a conclusion that still holds after a series of robustness checks.Further research demonstrates differences in the impacts of high-speed rail on marriage decisions among cities with varying levels of economic development,population scope,gender role attitudes and Confucian culture.A mechanism analysis reveals that the opening of high-speed rail increases local urbanization rates and housing prices,leading to a decrease in marriage rates;in the mean time,with the raise of employment and income levels of local residents,it causes an increase in divorce rates.This paper enriches the study of factors that influence marriage decision-making and sheds light on the study of marriage decision behavior.

关 键 词：高铁开通 交通基础设施建设 婚姻决策 结婚率 离婚率 

分 类 号：C913.1[经济管理] F532[社会学]