南水北调东线工程山东段受水区供需现状及预测  

Current status and forecast of water supply and demand in the receiving areas of the Eastern Route of South-to-North Water Transfers Project in Shandong Province

作　　者：王冠 陈绍军 WANG Guan;CHEN Shaojun(China South-to-North Water Diversion Eastern Route Corporation Limited,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]中国南水北调集团东线有限公司,100070北京

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技(中英文)》2024年第S2期49-55,共7页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3204600);国家自然科学基金项目(52209040)。

摘　　要：以山东省受水区为研究对象,收集近年来的水资源供需数据,采用定量分析与模型预测相结合的方法,探讨供需矛盾及其未来趋势。研究表明:山东省受水区水资源严重短缺,人均综合用水量244m^(3),仅为全国平均水平的58.2%,大部分城市的人均综合用水量低于全国平均水平。当地水、外调水、地下水是山东省受水区的主力水源,占比约为总供水量的30%,且大部分城市用水依赖外调水和地下水。根据供需预测,预计到2035年,山东省受水区总需水量将达到216.6亿m^(3),而可供水量将减少至178.75亿m^(3),缺水量将从25.28亿m^(3)增加至37.85亿m^(3)。水资源短缺问题日趋显现,呕需采取有效措施以应对未来日益严峻的水资源供需矛盾。The first phase of the Eastern Route of South-to-North Water Transfers Project extracted water from the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province and transported it along the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal to Shandong Province,forming a T-shaped water transfer network covering Lunan,the Shandong Peninsula,and Lubei.The study indicated that Shandong Province experienced severe water resource shortages in the receiving areas,with a per capita integrated water consumption of 244 cubic meters,representing only 58.2% of the national average.Most cities in the region recorded per capita water consumption below the national average.Local water,externally transferred water,and groundwater served as the primary water sources,each accounting for approximately 30% of the total supply.Many cities relied on external transfers and groundwater to meet their water demands.Forecasts suggested that by 2035,total water demand in Shandongs receiving areas would reach 21.66 billion cubic meters,while available water supply would decline to 17.875 billion cubic meters.Consequently,the water shortage would rise from 2.528 billion cubic meters to 3.785 billion cubic meters.The water shortage emerged as a critical bottleneck hindering the high-quality economic and social development of Shandong Province.Urgent measures are needed to address the escalating imbalance between water supply and demand.

关 键 词：南水北调东线工程 山东省受水区 水资源 供需平衡 缺水量 

分 类 号：TV68[水利工程—水利水电工程]