基于水动力学、水量平衡与积分时滞模型的坝上水位预测适用性分析  

Applicability analysis of dam water level prediction based on hydrodynamics,water balance and integrated time delay model

作　　者：罗玮 谢新文 龙岩 雷晓辉 郑钧 张有胜 LUO Wei;XIE Xinwen;LONG Yan;LEI Xiaohui;ZHENG Jun;ZHANG Yousheng(China Energy Group Big Data Service Co.,Ltd,Chengdu 610000,China;School of Hydropower,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056009,China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Smart Water Conservancy,Handan 056009,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Smart Water Resource Regulation and Integrated Management,Ministry-Provincial Joint Construction,Handan 056009,China;China South-to-North Water Diversion Group Water Network Smart Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102308,China;Water Network Digital Collaboration Technology Innovation Center of South-to-North Water Diversion Intelligent Water Netvork Company Smart Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102308,China)

机构地区：[1]国家能源集团大数据服务有限公司,成都610000 [2]河北工程大学水电学院,河北邯郸056038 [3]河北省智慧水利重点实验室,河北邯郸056038 [4]水资源智慧调控与综合管理省部共建协同创新中心,河北邯郸056038 [5]中国南水北调集团水网智慧科技有限公司,北京102308 [6]南水北调水网智科公司水网数字化协同技术创新中心,北京102308

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技(中英文)》2024年第S2期92-98,共7页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022117);河北省自然科学基金(E2024402142)。

摘　　要：针对径流式电站,水位运行区间小,水位波动大等特点,准确预测坝上水位对防洪、发电及生态管理至关重要。基于水动力学模型、水量平衡和自适应积分时滞模型对坝上水位进行对比分析,探讨各模型的适用性及优势。水动力学模型基于圣维南方程,能够精确预测水库水位的动态变化,具有较高的精度,但建模复杂,要求较高。水量平衡模型简化了质量守恒原理,在实际工程中具有很大局限性,但在预测步长较大时明显优于其他模型。自适应积分时滞模型,在不同工况下通过调整参数来反映系统的滞后响应,不依赖历史数据,预测精度较高但其也具有适用工况较窄的特点。各模型在不同应用场景中具有独特的优势,本文在为水库管理实践提供有价值的参考。In view of the characteristics of run-of-river power stations,such as small water level operation interval and large water level fluctuation,accurate prediction of the water level above the dam is very important for flood control,power generation and ecological management.Based on the hydrodynamic model,water balance and adaptive integral time delay model,the water level above the dam was compared and analyzed,and the applicability and advantages of each model were discussed.The hydrodynamic model is based on the Saint-Venant range,which can accurately predict the dynamic change of reservoir water level and has high accuracy,but the modeling is complex and has high requirements.The water balance model simplifies the principle of conservation of mass,which has great limitations in practical engineering,but is significantly better than other models when predicting large step sizes.The adaptive integrated delay model reflects the lag response of the system by adjusting the parameters under different working conditions,does not rely on historical data,and has high prediction accuracy,but it also has the characteristics of narrow applicable working conditions.Each model has unique advantages in different application scenarios,and this paper aims to provide a valuable reference for reservoir management practice.

关 键 词：积分时滞模型 水动力模型 水量平衡 坝上水位 深溪沟电站 

分 类 号：TV212.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]