Hydrogen Energy Demand Management in China:A Department Scenario Analysis Method  

作　　者：Zhongxun Li Bing Wang Xiaolin Liu 

机构地区：[1]Center for Sustainable Development and Energy Policy Research,School of Energy and Mining Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing,Beijing,100083,China [2]Research Institute of Decision-Making Science and Big Data,School of Management,China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing,Beijing,100083,China

出　　处：《Energy Engineering》2025年第3期971-983,共13页能源工程(英文)

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71704178);Beijing Municipal Excellent Talents Foundation(No.2017000020124G133);Major consulting project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering(Nos.2023-JB-08,2022-PP-03).

摘　　要：The proposal of carbon neutrality target makes decarbonization and hydrogenation typical features of future energy development in China.With a wide range of application scenarios,hydrogen energy will experience rapid growth in production and consumption.To formulate an effective hydrogen energy development strategy for the future of China,this study employs the departmental scenario analysis method to calculate and evaluate the future consumption of hydrogen energy in China’s heavy industry,transportation,electricity,and other related fields.Multidimensional technical parameters are selected and predicted accurately and reliably in combination with different development scenarios.The findings indicate that the period from 2030 to 2050 will enjoy rapid development of hydrogen energy,having an average annual growth rate of 2%to 4%.The technological progress and breakthroughs scenario has the greatest potential for hydrogen demand scale among the four development scenarios.Under this scenario,the total demand for hydrogen energy is expected to reach 446.37Mt in 2060.Thetransportation sector will be the sector with the greatest potential for hydrogen deployment growth from 2023 to 2060,which is expected to rise from 0.038Mt to about 163.18Mt,with the ambitious growth in the future.Additionally,hydrogen energy has a considerable development potential in the steel sector,and the trend of de-refueling coke by hydrogenation in this sector will be imperative for this energy-intensive industries.

关 键 词：HYDROGEN demand management department scenario analysis carbon neutrality 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]