特大型城市出租车油电转型过程中的清洁矿产循环利用潜力预测:以北京为例  

Prediction of clean mineral recycling potential in the oil-to-electric transformation of taxis in megacities:a case study of Beijing

作　　者：李欣萍 李华姣 LI Xinping;LI Huajiao(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]自然资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室,北京100083

出　　处：《中国矿业》2025年第2期158-167,共10页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(编号:72173119,71991481,72211540725,71991480);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(编号:2652019087,2652019241);北京市社会科学基金重点项目资助(编号:22JCB051);国家社会科学基金项目资助(编号:23STA012)。

摘　　要：在交通行业加快低碳化转变背景下,优先发展公共交通是缓解交通拥堵,构建资源节约型、环境友好型社会的有效战略,而公共交通电气化是其中重要环节。为描述特大型城市出租车系统的清洁矿产存量及其结构,本文以北京城市出租车为例,整合物质流分析方法和多元异构数据,量化城市出租车中锂、钴、镍、锰、铝、铂、钯、铑等8种清洁矿产的存量,并讨论在城市出租车加速电动化及锂电池正极技术进步情景下,清洁矿产存量的累积模式和报废回收潜力。研究结果发现:2011—2022年北京城市出租车系统中清洁矿产总存量达5000万t,十年内清洁矿产存量增长超57倍,金属锂、锰等约占总存量的65%。在基线情景下,清洁矿产总存量为2.5万t;在出租车系统加速电动化情景下,2023—2050年清洁矿产总存量仅为基线场景的70%;在锂电池正极技术进步情景下,清洁矿产总存量最低,不足基线情景的50%,由此可见,锂电池正极技术的发展对节约清洁矿产资源具有重要作用。在出租车系统及锂电池双加速情景下,清洁矿产总存量下降至1.5万t,锂存量占总存量的约3/4,电动化和锂电池技术的发展使锂供应面临重大挑战。本文研究估算了北京城市出租车系统的清洁矿产材料存量,对北京的案例研究不仅有助于与工业化国家的类似城市进行比较,也有助于为其他类型城市的可持续发展转型提供参考。In the context of accelerating the low-carbon transformation of the transportation industry,prioritizing the development of public transportation is an effective strategy to relieve traffic congestion and build a resource-saving and environmentally friendly society,and the electrification of public transportation is an important part of it.To describe the clean mineral stock and its structure in megacity taxi systems,this paper takes Beijing’s urban taxis as an example,integrates the material flow analysis method and multivariate heterogeneous data to quantify the stock of eight clean minerals,including lithium,cobalt,nickel,manganese,aluminum,platinum,palladium,and rhodium,and discusses the accumulation pattern of the clean mineral stock and the end-of-life recycling potential under the scenarios of accelerated electrification and advancement of Li-ion battery cathode technology in urban taxis.The study finds that the total clean mineral stock in Beijing’s urban taxi system reaches 50 million tons from 2011 to 2022,which is a 57-fold increase in the clean mineral stock in 10 years,with lithium and manganese accounting for about 65%of the total stock.In the baseline scenario,the total stock of clean minerals is 25000 tons;in the accelerated electrification of taxi system scenario,the total stock of clean minerals from 2023 to 2050 is only 70%of the baseline scenario;in the advancement of Li-ion battery cathode technology scenario,the total stock of clean minerals is the lowest,which is less than 50%of the baseline scenario,so it can be seen that the development of Li-ion battery cathode technology plays an important role in saving clean mineral resources.In the dual acceleration scenario of taxi system and Li-ion battery,the total stock of clean mineral materials decreases to 15000 tons,and the lithium stock accounts for about 3/4 of the total stock,and the development of electrification and Li-ion battery technology makes the lithium supply face great challenges.This paper estimates the stock of clean minera

关 键 词：城市出租车系统 清洁矿产存量 锂电池技术发展 城市矿产 循环利用潜力 

分 类 号：TD-9[矿业工程] U-9[交通运输工程]