“一带一路”沿线国家铜产品贸易网络格局演化及其影响因素研究  

Evolution of trade network pattern of copper mineral products in countries along“the Belt and Road”and its influencing factors

作　　者：郑明贵[1,2] 罗来文 李期 温东洪 ZHENG Minggui;LUO Laiwen;LI Qi;WEN Donghong(School of Economics and Management,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000,China;Mining Trade and Investment Research Center,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000,China)

机构地区：[1]江西理工大学经济管理学院,江西赣州341000 [2]江西理工大学矿业贸易与投资研究中心,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《中国矿业》2025年第2期333-345,共13页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国战略性矿产资源产业链供应链安全稳定战略研究(2025—2060)”资助(编号:22XGL003);国家自然科学基金重点项目“大数据环境下的评价理论、方法和应用”资助(编号:71631006)。

摘　　要：对“一带一路”沿线国家铜产品贸易网络格局演化及其影响因素进行研究,有助于优化“一带一路”沿线国家铜产品贸易现状,为我国制定铜产品贸易与投资政策提供参考依据。本文基于铜产业链视角,利用2003—2022年“一带一路”沿线国家铜产品贸易数据,运用复杂网络方法和ERGM模型分析了上游(铜矿石、废杂铜)、中游(粗铜、精炼铜)和下游(铜材)五种产品贸易格局演化特征及其影响因素。研究发现:(1)“一带一路”沿线国家铜产品贸易联系和规模日益扩大,铜产品贸易大国之间具有强贸易联系;(2)五种铜产品贸易网络尤其是铜矿石和铜材产品贸易网络的连通性、紧密性和传输效率较高;(3)中国、印度和土耳其等核心国家在“一带一路”沿线国家五种铜产品贸易网络中占据领导地位,具有极强的控制能力,部分国家如新加坡、波兰和马来西亚等贸易中转国在粗铜和精炼铜产品贸易中扮演着中介角色;(4)铜产品贸易网络受互惠性、扩张性、聚敛性、行为者属性和网络协变量的共同驱动,其中,互惠性、扩张性和聚敛性对五种铜产品贸易网络具有显著的异质性影响,行为者属性因素如经济发展水平、矿石和金属出口与人口规模会显著影响铜产品贸易,网络协变量中的地理接壤、贸易协定是铜产品贸易网络的正向驱动因素,而共同语言的影响则较小。The study on the evolution of copper mineral trade network pattern and its influencing factors in countries along“the Belt and Road”is helpful to optimize the current situation of copper mineral product trade in countries along“the Belt and Road”and provide a reference for China to formulate copper mineral product trade and investment policies.Based on the perspective of the copper industry chain,this paper analyzes the characteristics of the evolution of the trade pattern and its influence mechanism of five products,namely,upstream(copper ore,copper scrap),midstream(crude copper,refined copper)and downstream(copper material),using the copper trade data of the countries along“the Belt and Road”from 2003 to 2022 with the use of the complex network method and the ERGM model.The study found that:①the trade links and scale of copper products along“the Belt and Road”have been expanding,and the big copper trading countries have strong trade links.②The trade networks of the five copper products,especially the trade network of copper ore and copper material products,have high connectivity,tightness and transmission efficiency.③The core countries,such as China,India and Turkey,are in“the Belt and Road”,and the trade networks of the five copper mineral products have high connectivity,tightness and transmission efficiency.The core countries such as China,India and Turkey occupy a leading position in the trade network of the five copper mineral products in“the Belt and Road”and have strong control ability,while some countries such as Singapore,Poland and Malaysia and other trade transit countries play an intermediary role in the trade of crude copper and refined copper.④Copper mineral product trade is driven by reciprocity,expansiveness,convergence,actors’attributes and network covariates.Copper trade is driven by reciprocity,expansion,convergence,actor attributes and network covariates.Reciprocity,expansiveness and convergence have significant heterogeneous effects on the five copper minera

关 键 词：“一带一路” 铜产品 贸易网络 贸易格局演化 影响因素 

分 类 号：TD-9[矿业工程] F742[经济管理—国际贸易]