产业链视角下全球钴矿产品贸易格局演化及中国应对  

Evolution of global cobalt product trade pattern from the perspective of industry chain and China’s response

作  者:李佳倩 叶前林 金蕴秋 曾庆根 卢红[1] LI Jiaqian;YE Qianlin;JIN Yunqiu;ZENG Qinggen;LU Hong(Institute of Nonferrous Metals Industry Development,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000,China)

机构地区:[1]江西理工大学有色金属产业发展研究院,江西赣州341000

出  处:《中国矿业》2025年第2期360-370,共11页China Mining Magazine

基  金:国家社会科学基金一般项目“双循环视阈下我国稀土产业价值链重构与路径选择研究”资助(编号:23BGL218)。

摘  要:全球钴矿资源分布不均且供需矛盾突出,剖析钴产品贸易格局演变特征,对研判我国钴产品贸易地位及保障钴产业链安全具有重要战略意义。本文基于复杂网络分析法,采用2004—2023年联合国商品贸易数据库中的数据,描绘20年间全球钴产品贸易格局演变态势。研究结果表明:(1)从贸易规模看,全球钴产品贸易总额与贸易总量的变化趋势相吻合,但不同环节的变化趋势却存在较大差异,具体表现为上游钴产品贸易量显著下降,但贸易额变化不大;中下游钴产品贸易额与贸易量涨幅均较大。(2)从贸易网络结构看,其一,全球钴贸易网络密度整体呈平稳上升趋势;其中,上游环节网络密度略微下降,中游环节网络密度先稳步增加后波动下降,下游环节变化与中游环节一致,但下游环节网络密度低于中游环节,增幅和增速均高于中游环节。其二,全球钴产品贸易上中下游环节均具有“小世界”网络特征,下游环节更加显著。其三,全球钴产品贸易网络中心性整体呈“先平稳上升、后缓慢下降”趋势,中国在上中下游各环节网络中心性均呈上升态势。(3)从贸易网络社区看,钴产品贸易网络社区划分呈现传统以欧洲为中心向全球多元化发展演变,中国与其他非洲国家(南非、摩洛哥等)的社区地位愈发稳固,钴产品贸易影响力和竞争力显著提升。最后,从拓宽进口渠道,优化进口结构;加强国内钴矿资源勘查,鼓励企业“走出去”;建立应对市场供需波动的钴贸易预警联动机制等方面,提出增强我国钴产品贸易竞争力的政策建议。The global cobalt mineral resources are unevenly distributed and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent.Analyzing the evolution characteristics of the cobalt mineral product trade pattern has important strategic significance for the study and judgment of China’s cobalt mineral product trade position and the security of the cobalt industry chain.Based on complex network analysis,this paper uses data from the United Nations Commodity Trade Database from 2004 to 2023 to depict the evolution of the global cobalt product trade pattern in the past 20 years.The results show that:①from the perspective of trade scale,the global total trade of cobalt products is consistent with the change trend of the total trade volume,but there are great differences in the change trend of trade volume and trade quantity in different links,which is manifested in the significant decline in the upstream trade volume of cobalt mineral products,but the change of trade volume is little.The trade volume and trade quantity of cobalt mineral products in the midstream and downstream reaches increased greatly.②From the perspective of trade network structure,firstly,the global cobalt trade network density shows a steady upward trend.Among them,the upstream network density decreases slightly,the midstream increases steadily and then fluctuates,and the downstream changes are consistent with the midstream,but the downstream network density is lower than the midstream,and the growth rate is higher than the midstream.Secondly,the upstream,midstream and downstream links of the global cobalt mineral products trade have the characteristics of a“small world”network,especially the downstream link is more significant.Thirdly,the centrality of the global cobalt product trade network as a whole shows a trend of“steady rise before slow decline”,and the network centrality of China in the upstream,midstream and downstream links is on the rise.③From the perspective of trade network community,the division of cobalt mineral products t

关 键 词:钴产品贸易 全产业链 贸易格局 贸易地位 贸易网络分析法 

分 类 号:TD-9[矿业工程]

 

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