基于ESDA的大渡河中游县域社会经济与生态环境耦合协调变化研究——以四川省汉源县为例  

Study on the Coupled and Coordinated Changes of Social Economy and Ecological Environment in the Middle Reaches of the Dadu River County Based on ESDA—A Case Study of Hanyuan County of Sichuan Province

作　　者：曾雄 夏建国 鲜顺志 郑纪龙 向玉潇 ZENG Xiong;XIA Jian-guo;XIAN Shun-zhi(Sichuan Forestry and Grassland Investigation and Planning Institute,Chengdu,Sichuan 610084;College of Resources,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu,Sichuan 611130)

机构地区：[1]四川省林业和草原调查规划院,四川成都610084 [2]四川农业大学资源学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2025年第4期40-46,共7页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：四川省科技厅社会发展领域重点研发项目(2021YFS0279);四川省自然资源厅科研项目(Kj-2021-7)。

摘　　要：[目的]研究县域社会经济与生态环境耦合协调变化特征。[方法]以大渡河中游汉源县为研究对象,综合运用耦合协调度模型及探索性空间数据模型,研究2000—2020年社会经济与生态环境耦合协调的时空演变特征。[结果]汉源县社会经济与生态环境2个系统的耦合度、综合评价指数和耦合协调度的平均值分别为0.9873~0.9909、0.2492~0.2592和0.4963~0.5052,3个指标总体呈缓慢增长趋势,类型等级除耦合度单一外,综合评价指数和耦合协调度均有所提升。汉源县社会经济与生态环境2个系统的耦合度、综合评价指数和耦合协调度均存在显著的空间集聚现象,3个指标的全局Moran’s I指数均呈小幅度波动变化趋势,耦合度的集聚效应在降低,下降了10.81%,而综合评价指数和耦合协调度的集聚态势在增强,分别增加了20.46%和19.82%。在空间分布上,3个指标的热点区和次热点区主要分布在县域四周山区,除耦合度呈零星分布外,综合评价指数和耦合协调度较为集中分布;3个指标的冷点区和次冷点区主要沿大渡河河谷分布。时间变化上,耦合度2020年热点区和次热点区格网个数最多,冷点区和次冷点区格网个数呈“U”型变化;综合评价指数和耦合协调度的冷点区和次冷点区格网个数呈倒“U”型变化,热点区和次热点区格网个数呈减少趋势。[结论]汉源县在推进乡村振兴中应持续推进社会经济与生态环境的耦合协调发展,实现人与自然和谐发展。[Objective]To study the characteristics of coupling and coordinating changes between county social economy and ecological environment.[Method]Taking Hanyuan County in the middle reaches of the Dadu River as the research object,the coupling coordination degree model and the exploratory spatial data model were comprehensively used to explore the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination between its social economy and ecological environment from 2000 to 2020.[Result]The average values of the coupling degree,comprehensive evaluation index and coupling coordination degree of social economy and ecological environment in Hanyuan County were respectively between 0.9873-0.9909,0.2492-0.2592 and 0.4963-0.5052,the three indicators showed a slow growth trend.In addition to the single coupling degree,the comprehensive evaluation index and coupling coordination degree of the type level had improved.The coupling degree,comprehensive evaluation index and coupling coordination degree of social economy and ecological environment in Hanyuan County had significant spatial agglomeration phenomenon.The global Moran's I index of the three indicators showed a small fluctuation trend,and the clustering effect of coupling degree was decreasing,decreasing by 10.81%.However,the agglomeration trend of comprehensive evaluation index and coupling coordination degree was increasing,increasing by 20.46%and 19.82%respectively.In terms of spatial distribution,the hot spots and sub-hot spots of the three indicators were mainly distributed in the mountainous areas around the county.In addition to the sporadic distribution of the coupling degree,the comprehensive evaluation index and coupling coordination degree were relatively concentrated;the cold spots of the three indicators were mainly distributed along the river valley.In terms of temporal variation,the coupling degree showed the highest number of grid cells in hot and sub-hot areas in 2020,while the number of grid cells in cold and sub-cold areas showed a"U"sh

关 键 词：县域尺度 社会经济 生态环境 耦合协调发展 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]