云南省碳排放驱动因素及碳达峰预测研究  

Study on Carbon Emission Drivers and Carbon Peak Forecasting in Yunnan Province

作　　者：秦际平 杨燕平 贾海锋 管堂珍 董林 王万宾 QIN Ji-ping;YANG Yan-ping;JIA Hai-feng;GUAN Tang-zhen;Dong Lin;WANG Wan-bin(Yunnan Academy of Ecological and Environmental Sciences,Kunming Yunnan 650034,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省生态环境科学研究院,云南昆明650034 [2]云南省高原湖泊流域污染过程与管理重点实验室,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《环境科学导刊》2025年第1期5-9,共5页Environmental Science Survey

摘　　要：实现碳达峰、碳中和是当前我国的一项重要战略,而云南省“十四五”期间将继续大力发展工业产业,给全省2030年实现碳达峰带来较大挑战。在此背景下,本研究通过构建碳排放与人均GDP、单位GDP能耗、人口规模、工业占比、一次电占比、城镇化率等影响因素之间的岭回归-STIRPAT模型,利用蒙特卡洛方法对云南省2030年碳达峰情况进行情景模拟。研究结果表明:①构建的岭回归-STIRPAT模型能够较好地描述云南省二氧化碳排放量与各影响因子之间的关系,预测偏差大多在5%以内;②2025年后,工业占比将成为影响2030年云南省碳达峰的关键因子;③2025年后,适度降低工业占比,云南省2030年基本能实现碳达峰(概率为95.62%),碳峰值为242百万t左右。Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality was currently an important strategy in China,and Yunnan Province would continue to vigorously develop industrial industries during 2021-2025,which would bring great challenges to achieving carbon peak by 2030.In this context,this study built a ridge regression-STIRPAT model between carbon emissions and factors such as per capita GDP,energy consumption per unit of GDP,population size,the proportion of industry in GDP,primary electricity proportion,urbanization rate,etc.,and used Monte Carlo method to simulate the carbon peak situation in Yunnan Province in 2030.The results showed that the constructed ridge regression STIRPAT model could well describe the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and various influencing factors in Yunnan Province,with a prediction deviation of around 5%for many years.After 2025,the proportion of industry in GDP would become the key factor affecting the carbon peak of Yunnan Province in 2030.After 2025,if the proportion of industry was moderately reduced,the carbon peak could basically be achieved in 2030(the probability is 95.62%),with a carbon peak of about 242 million tons.

关 键 词：碳排放 驱动因素 碳达峰 岭回归-STIRPAT模型 蒙特卡洛方法 云南省 

分 类 号：X38[环境科学与工程—环境工程]