基于“四阶段法”的交通需求预测与改善优化  

Traffic Demand Prediction and Improvement and Optimization Based on the"Four-stage Method"

作　　者：陈杉栅 CHEN Shanshan(Hunan Architectural Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Guangxi Branch,Liuzhou,Guangxi 545001,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省建筑设计院集团股份有限公司广西分公司,广西柳州545001

出　　处：《黑龙江交通科技》2025年第2期125-128,F0003,共5页Communications Science and Technology Heilongjiang

摘　　要：交通需求分析是项目建设的依据和基础,对于交通系统改善优化具有重要影响。为研究新建项目对周边路网的影响,以“四阶段法”为基础,构建了城市交通需求分配模型,分析了研究区域的交通需求特征及其空间分布规律。利用交通规划软件,对项目周边区域现状路网和未来交通需求进行了模拟与预测,量化了新增交通流量对路网运行状态的影响。最后,提出了交通系统改善与组织优化策略,包括出入口改善、优化内外部交通组织形式以及提升交通节点运行效率。Traffic demand analysis serves as the foundation and basis for project construction and plays a critical role in the optimization and improvement of traffic systems.To study the impact of new projects on the surrounding road network,a city traffic demand assignment model was developed based on the“Four-stage Method."This model analyzes the traffic demand characteristics and spatial distribution patterns within the study area.Using traffic planning software,simulations and forecasts were conducted on the current road network and future traffic demand in the project's surrounding area,quantifying the impact of additional traffic flow on road network performance.Finally,strategies for traffic system improvement and organization optimization were proposed,including entrance and exit enhancements,optimization of internal and external traffc organization,and improved operational effciency of traffic nodes.

关 键 词：交通工程 交通需求预测 四阶段法 随机用户均衡模型 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]