惠州市闷热天气对居民心脑血管疾病死亡的影响  

Impact of muggy weather in Huizhou City on mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in residents

作　　者：李才明[1] 黄静 朱政杰 姜帅[3] 肖悦晴 陈绮莉 彭柳青 沈士媛 Li Caiming;Huang Jing;Zhu Zhengjie;Jiang Shuai;Xiao Yueqing;Chen Qili;Peng Liuqing;Shen Shiyuan(Department of Neurology,First People's Hospital of Huizhou City,Huizhou 516003,China;Second Clinical Medical College of Guangdong Medical University,Dongguan 524023,China;Meteorological Bureau of Huizhou City,Guangdong Province,Huizhou 516003,China;First Clinical Medical College of Guangdong Medical University,Zhanjiang 524023,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省惠州市第一人民医院神经内科,516003 [2]广东医科大学第二临床医学院,东莞523808 [3]广东省惠州市气象局,516003 [4]广东医科大学第一临床医学院,湛江524023

出　　处：《心脑血管病防治》2025年第1期29-32,共4页CARDIO-CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASE PREVENTION AND TREATMENT

摘　　要：目的评价惠州市闷热天气对居民心脑血管疾病死亡的影响。方法收集2015年至2021年华南地区惠州市常住居民心脑血管疾病死亡人数资料,将心脑血管疾病逐日死亡人数按时间序列统计,采用准泊松分布的分布非线性滞后模型(DLNM),通过统计描述、独立样本t检验及相关性分析,分析了心脑血管疾病死亡人数与闷热天气的关联。结果闷热天气能增加心脑血管疾病的死亡风险,闷热天气对心脑血管疾病死亡总人数、男性人数、女性人数的影响存在滞后效应,其滞后天数均为2 d。闷热天气对心脑血管疾病死亡总人数、男性人数、女性人数在滞后2 d时效应最大,其相对危险度分别为1.281(95%CI=1.208~1.359)(P<0.05)、1.261(95%CI=1.168~1.362)(P<0.05)和1.305(95%CI=1.203~1.417)(P<0.05)。结论闷热天气对居民心脑血管疾病死亡存在影响,且存在一定的滞后效应。Objective To evaluate the impact of muggy weather in Huizhou City on the mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in residents.Methods Data on the number of deaths due to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases among permanent residents in Huizhou City,South China,from 2015 to 2021 were collected.The daily death toll from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases was statistically analyzed using a time-series approach.A distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)based on the quasi-Poisson distribution was used,and statistical descriptions,independent sample t-tests,and correlation analysis were employed to investigate the association between cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease death toll and muggy weather.Results Muggy weather increased the risk of death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease.There was a lag effect of muggy weather on the total number of deaths,as well as the deaths of male and female patients from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,all with a peaked lag of 2 days.The effect of muggy weather had the greatest effect on the total number of deaths,the number of male and female deaths from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases with a lag of 2 days,and the coresponding relative risks were 1.281(95%CI=1.208-1.359,P<0.05),1.261(95%CI=1.168-1.362,P<0.05),and 1.305(95%CI=1.203-1.417,P<0.05),respectively.Conclusion Muggy weather affects the mortality from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in residents,and there is a lag effect.

关 键 词：闷热天气 闷热指数 心脑血管疾病 死亡人数 华南地区 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学] R54[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学] R743