野菊复合体生态适宜性分析及未来潜在产地布局预测  

Ecological Suitability Analysis and Future Potential Habitat Layout Prediction for Chrysanthemum indicum Complex

作　　者：张海琼 朱明玉 池玉洁 刘义飞 胡志刚 张景景 ZHANG Haiqiong;ZHU Mingyu;CHI Yujie;LIU Yifei;HU Zhigang;ZHANG Jingjing(College of Pharmacy,Hubei University of Chinese Medicine,Wuhan 430065,China;Hubei Shizhen Laboratory,Wuhan 430065,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北中医药大学药学院,武汉430065 [2]湖北时珍实验室,武汉430065

出　　处：《世界科学技术-中医药现代化》2025年第1期75-83,共9页Modernization of Traditional Chinese Medicine and Materia Medica-World Science and Technology

基　　金：湖北省中医药管理局中医药科研项目(ZY2023F130):湖北两个菊属药典种野菊和菊花(福白菊)品质评价体系构建,负责人:张景景;国家自然科学基金委员会青年基金项目(31900267):不同生境条件下神农香菊萜类挥发性物质不稳定产生的分子机制研究,负责人:张景景。

摘　　要：目的分析未来时期野菊复合体物种的潜在生态适宜产区,以提供科学依据进行布局规划和规范化种植。方法通过收集全国范围内1379个有效的野菊复合体物种分布数据和104个生态因子,结合MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件,对17种不同气候情景下野菊复合体的潜在生态分布区进行分析。结果降雨量和太阳辐射是影响野菊复合体适宜生境的关键环境变量。野菊复合体最适宜生长的区域分别集中在湖北(野菊)、山西(甘菊)、江苏(菊花脑)和湖北(神农香菊)地区。在不同情景下,野菊和甘菊的适生区面积整体呈缩减趋势,神农香菊和菊花脑的适生区面积则呈扩张趋势。质心迁移表明了野菊复合体对气候变化表现出敏感性。结论对野菊复合体的潜在分布区分别进行了生态适宜性等级划分,为资源的可持续利用、引种栽培以及科学区划提供了重要的参考依据。Objective To provide scientific basis for layout planning and standardized cultivation the species of Chrysanthemum indicum complex in future periods,the potential ecological suitable areas was analyzed,.Methods By collecting distribution data of 1379 valid C.indicum complex species nationwide and 104 ecological factors,combined with MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software,the potential ecological distribution areas of C.indicum complex under 17 different climate scenarios was analyzed.Results Precipitation and solar radiation are key environmental variables affecting the suitable habitats of C.indicum complex.The most suitable regions for the growth of C.indicum complex was concentrated in Hubei(C.indicum L.),Shanxi(C.lavandulifolium),Jiangsu(C.nankingense),and Hubei(C.indicum var.aromaticum)regions.Under different scenarios,the suitable habitat area for C.indicum L.and C.lavandulifolium showed an overall decreasing trend,while those for C.indicum var.aromaticum and C.nankingense showed an expanding trend.The centroid shift indicates sensitivity of C.indicum complex to climate change.Conclusion The potential distribution areas of C.indicum complex is classified into ecological suitability levels,providing important reference for the sustainable use,introduction cultivation,and scientific zoning of related resources.

关 键 词：野菊复合体 神农香菊 MAXENT ARCGIS 生态适宜性 

分 类 号：S567.239[农业科学—中草药栽培]