南水北调工程对受水区水资源非农化的影响  

The impact of South-to-North Water Transfers Project on de-agriculturalization of water resources in receiving area

作　　者：徐章星 刘思媛 李祎雯 蒋政 金宇 XU Zhangxing;LIU Siyuan;LI Yiwen;JIANG Zheng;JIN Yu(School of Economics and Finance,Hohai University,Changzhou 213200,China;Institute of Ecological Civilization Construction and Watershed Protection,Nanjing 210024,China;Jiangsu Research Base of Yangtze Institute for Conservation and High-quality Development,Hohai University,Nanjing 210024,China;Changshu Quality Supervision Station of Water Conservancy Projects,Changshu 215500,China;Jianhu County Agricultural Technology Extension and Service Center,Jianhu 224700,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学经济与金融学院,江苏常州213200 [2]生态文明建设与流域保护研究院,南京210024 [3]江苏长江保护与高质量发展研究基地,南京210024 [4]常熟市水利工程质量监督站,江苏常熟215500 [5]建湖县农业技术推广服务中心,江苏建湖224700

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技(中英文)》2025年第1期21-35,共15页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(24CJY109)。

摘　　要：南水北调工程通水缓解了受水区缺水状况,但考虑到非农用水的“促进效应”和农业用水的“返还效应”,其对受水区水资源非农化的影响存在不确定性。利用我国2003-2021年省级面板数据,构建多时点双重差分模型,从规模和程度双重视角定量分析南水北调工程通水对受水区水资源非农化的影响,并进行稳健性检验,在此基础上探究其累计效应。研究发现:南水北调工程通水显著提升受水区的非农用水规模和占比,且在稳健性检验后依然成立;机制分析表明,工程通水对受水区水资源非农化的影响主要体现在地表水和其他水供给量的增加;与东线工程相比,工程通水的影响在中线工程地区更为显著;细分来看,工程通水促进了工业用水规模的增加,同时农业用水规模逐步减少;此外,通水对受水区经济、社会和生态效益的影响分别体现在GDP增长、产业结构层次优化以及地表水和地下水变动率正向波动等方面。Water is regarded as a fundamental resource for human society's development.China is recognized as one of the 21 most water-poor and water-scarce countries in the world.This is particularly evident in the Yellow River Basin,where there is a significant imbalance between water supply and demand.To mitigate the water scarcity in the northern region,China constructed the South-to-North Water Transfers Project(SNWTP),thus representing a cross-basin and cross-regional water resources allocation initiative.The severe water shortage predicament in the receiving areas was notably improved by the opening of both the central and eastern routes of the SNWTP.Furthermore,as China progressed with its industrialization and urbanization,a substantial portion of agricultural water was redirected towards non-agricultural purposes,thereby driving an ongoing increase in non-agricultural water demand.Considering the exogenous impact of the SNWTP,it had the potential to either stimulate or hinder the non-agriculturalization of water resources in the receiving areas,while simultaneously addressing water resource constraints.As a result,to empirically investigate,the precise impact of the opening of the SNWTP on the nonagriculturalization of water resources in the receiving areas remained uncertain and warranted further investigation.The impact of the opening of the SNWTP on the non-agriculturalization of water resources in the receiving areas is assessed in terms of scale and degree using a time-varying differences-in-differences model based on provincial panel data from the year 2003 to 2021.Robustness tests such as parallel trend test,placebo test,exclusion of other policy interferences,propensity score matching,controlling for time trend,heterogeneity treatment effect and Bacon decomposition are conducted on this basis.The opening of the SNWTP has been shown to have a positive impact on both the scale and degree of nonagricultural water resource use in the receiving areas.Robust tests have confirmed that this conclusion is consisten

关 键 词：南水北调工程 受水区 水资源非农化 多时点双重差分模型 

分 类 号：TV68[水利工程—水利水电工程]