水资源脆弱性评价方法及应用  

Water resource vulnerability assessment methods and applications

作　　者：陈财莹 喜文飞 顾世祥 钱堂慧 陈晶 吴雷 CHEN Caiying;XI Wenfei;GU Shixiang;QIAN Tanghui;CHEN Jing;WU Lei(Faculty of Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China;Yunnan Institute of Water&Hydropower Engineering investigation,Design and Research,Kunming 650021,China;Yunnan Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Survey and Design Institute Co.,Ltd,Kunming 650021,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学地理学部,昆明650500 [2]云南省水利水电勘测设计研究院,昆明650021 [3]云南省水利水电勘测设计院有限公司,昆明650021

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技(中英文)》2025年第1期99-109,共11页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41861134008);滇中引水工程(滇中高原区)高分综合应用示范项目(89-Y50-G31-9001-22/23-05);云南师范大学研究生科研创新基金(YJSJJ23-B103)。

摘　　要：现有的水资源脆弱性评价大多聚焦于某一特定区域进行研究,在空间尺度上不具有普适性和可推演性。针对已有评价方法空间差异性辨识能力差和空间尺度无法自适应的问题,构建基于敏感性压力、水资源禀赋状态和适应性响应的空间无关性评价指标体系,运用层次分析法和熵权法确定权重,并借助网格化思想及GIS空间计算能力将各种因子整合到统一的空间框架中,通过逐格网单元线性加权实现水资源脆弱性的网格化评价。结果显示:总体上受水区西部的脆弱性高于东部,呈现出以星云湖为中心向东部逐渐降低的分布格局;全年脆弱性强度呈现出明显的季节性变化特征,冬春季节高于夏秋季节;星云湖流域及周边地区水资源脆弱性显著高于其他地区。该方法可为区域水资源脆弱性评价提供一种新的思路,为引调水工程水资源的合理分配和受水区水资源的规划管理提供决策支撑。Evaluating the vulnerability of water resources is crucial for optimizing resource allocation and effectively managing water security risks. The Sixth Assessment Report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of United Nations in 2023 underscored that human-induced global warming is intensifying, leading to a greater occurrence of extreme droughts and floods. This phenomenon is contributing to heightened uncertainty and risks related to water supply and management. Yuxi City, located in central Yunnan, is a typical region subject to seasonal water shortages, with uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources. The conflict between the water supply and demand is further aggravated under the influence of the monsoon season. Assessing regional water resource vulnerability and uncovering the extent and spatial characteristics of the impacts of climate change and human activities on the water resource system can provide reliable guides for government water resource management, facilitating the sustainable development of water resources.Existing water resource vulnerability assessments primarily focused on specific regions, lacking generalizability and scalability across different spatial scales. To deal with these issues, the paper expanded the concept and connotation of water resource vulnerability. It addressed the deficiencies present in the spatial differentiation capability of current evaluation methods and the inability to adapt to varying spatial scales. A spatially independent evaluation index system was developed based on sensitivity pressure, water resource endowment status, and adaptive response. Eleven indicators were selected and employed, along with the combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and entropy weighting method to determine the weights of these indicators. By leveraging gridbased methodology and GIS spatial computing capabilities, these factors were integrated into a unified spatial framework. A grid-based vulnerability assessment of water resources was ach

关 键 词：GIS 层次分析法 熵权法 网格化方法 水资源脆弱性评价 玉溪市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]