不同风暴轴活动指标与东亚—西太平洋区域高影响天气的关系差异  

Study on the differences in relationship between various storm track metrics and high-impact weather over the East Asia-West Pacific region

作　　者：肖娜 余沛龙 张立凤 张潮 杨明浩 姜勇强 XIAO Na;YU Peilong;ZHANG Lifeng;ZHANG Chao;YANG Minghao;JIANG Yongqiang(School of Meteorology and Oceanography,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China;Key Laboratory of High Impact Weather(special),China Meteorological Administration,Changsha 410073,China;State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学气象海洋学院,长沙410073 [2]中国气象局高影响天气(专项)重点开放实验室,长沙410073 [3]南京信息工程大学气候系统预测与变化应对全国重点实验室/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044

出　　处：《气象科学》2025年第1期13-25,共13页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(42105066,42205046,42305069);中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2021M701754);江苏省博士后科研资助计划项目(2021K195B)。

摘　　要：风暴轴是中纬度地区导致强风和降水等高影响天气的重要系统,然而不同风暴轴活动指标的天气影响可能存在差异。本文在归纳了13个常用风暴轴活动指标(9个欧拉指标和4个拉格朗日指标)的基础上,将月降水量和近地面大风定义为高影响天气指标,利用最大相关系数和变形典型相关分析方法研究了不同风暴轴活动指标与东亚—西太平洋区域高影响天气间的关系差异。结果表明,相较于其他风暴轴活动指标,对流层中低层的欧拉风暴轴指标与高影响天气指标有着较强的关联性,拉格朗日指标与降水指标的关联性要高于其与大风指标的关联性。具体而言,700 hPa垂直速度方差指标与近地面大风的相关性最好,850 hPa相对涡度方差和涡旋动能指标与降水的相关性最好。本文通过两个评估框架确定了与东亚—西太平洋高影响天气关系最为密切的风暴轴指标,可为深入认知中纬度风暴轴活动的天气影响,以及东亚—西太平洋区域高影响天气监测预警提供参考。Storm track plays a crucial role in contributing to the development of high-impact weather conditions such as high wind and precipitation over the mid-latitude regions.However,there may be differences in weather impacts of various storm track metrics.In this paper,the 13 commonly used storm track metrics(9 Eulerian metrics and 4 Lagrangian metrics)were summarized,monthly precipitation and near-surface high wind were defined as the high-impact weather indicators.Then,the differences in the relationship between various storm track metrics and high-impact weather indicators over the East Asia-West Pacific region by two methods:maximum correlation coefficient and deformed canonical correlation analysis were investigated.Results show that among all storm track metrics,Eulerian metrics in the lower troposphere show a stronger association with the high-impact weather indicators.On the other hand,Lagrangian metrics demonstrate a higher correlation with precipitation rather than high wind.Specifically,the 700 hPa vertical velocity variance metric exhibits the highest correlation with the near-surface high wind,while the relative vorticity variance and eddy kinetic energy metrics at 850 hPa display highest correlations with the precipitation.Through the two evaluation frameworks,this study identifies which storm track metric is most closely linked to the high-impact weather over the East Asia-West Pacific region.These findings can deepen the understanding of weather impacts of storm track activity and contribute to the monitoring and early warning of high-impact weather events in this area.

关 键 词：风暴轴活动 东亚—西太平洋区域 高影响天气 

分 类 号：P434[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P732