1971—2017年环太湖地区降水时空变化特征  

Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation from 1971 to 2017 around the Taihu Lake area

作　　者：白淑英 孙磊 史建桥 谢涛 BAI Shuying;SUN Lei;SHI Jianqiao;XIE Tao(School of Remote Sensing and Geomatics Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;94783 Sub Unit,61 Unit,Zhejiang Changxing 313111,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学遥感与测绘工程学院,南京210044 [2]94783部队61分队,浙江长兴313111

出　　处：《气象科学》2025年第1期49-56,共8页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：江苏省自然资源发展专项资金(海洋科技创新)项目(JSZRHYKJ202114);江苏省应急管理科技项目(YJGL-YF-2020-16)。

摘　　要：降水的非均匀分配是导致干旱和洪涝等灾害的主要原因,降水集中度(Precipitation Concentration Degree,PCD)和降水集中期(Precipitation Concentration Period,PCP)能够定量描述降水非均匀性的时空分布特征。本文基于环太湖地区18个气象站1971—2017年逐日降水量资料,选用降水量和降水日数、降水集中度和降水集中期指标,分析环太湖地区降水量时空分布特征及变化规律。结果表明:环太湖地区降水量充沛,近47 a来年降水量呈显著增加、降水日数呈减少趋势。春季降水量减少趋势明显,易发生春旱。夏、秋季降水日数明显增加,加大了洪涝发生的风险。降水集中度和集中期在时间上的变化呈缓慢递增趋势。空间分布上,PCD从东南向西北递增,PCP呈由西南向东北推迟的趋势,年际变化均为北增南减。年降水量与PCD和PCP均表现为正相关关系,即年降水量偏多(少)年,降水量年内分布有集中(均匀)趋势,PCP会呈现出推后(提前)的趋势。环太湖地区地形对降水分布有显著影响,高海拔地区降水日数和降水量偏多。The non-uniform distribution of precipitation is the main cause of disasters such as drought and flood.Precipitation Concentration Period(PCP)and Precipitation Concentration Degree(PCD)can quantitatively describe the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation inhomogeneity.Based on the daily precipitation data of 18 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2017 around the Taihu Lake Basin,the spatial and temporal change characteristics of the annual precipitation,precipitation days,PCD and PCP were analyzed by methods of linear regression and coefficient of variation.Results show that annual precipitation was in a significant increasing trend in the past 47 years,and the annual precipitation days was in a significant decreasing trend.The decreasing trend of precipitation in spring is obvious,which is easy to lead to spring drought.The number of precipitation days increased significantly in summer and autumn,increasing the risk of flooding.PCD and PCP had trends of slowly increasing.The PCD increased from the southeast to the northwest.The PCP in the southwest area was earlier than that in the northeast area.Both PCD and PCP increased in the north region and decreased in the south region.It was found that there was a positive relationship between PCD,PCP and the amount of annual precipitation in space,that is to say,the more(less)annual precipitation was,the bigger(smaller)the PCD was,PCP presented a trend of later(earlier)accordingly.The topography had a significant effect on precipitation around the Taihu Lake Basin,it showed that the amount of annual precipitation and precipitation days were more in high-altitudeareas.

关 键 词：环太湖地区 降水集中度 降水集中期 海拔 时空变化 

分 类 号：P426.61[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]