中国税制结构演变的动因机制研究——基于投入产出表的因素分解  

Research on the Driving Mechanism of the Evolution of China's Tax Structure--Factor Decomposition Based on Input-Output Table

作　　者：蒋震[1] 刘贇德 Jiang Zhen;Liu Yunde

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2024年第11期60-75,共16页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“完善直接税制度并提高其比重研究”(20AJY021);中国社会科学院重大创新项目“提高人民生活品质,完善全社会基本公共服务体系研究”(2023YZD024)。

摘　　要：宏观经济是税制结构演变的关键因素,优化税制结构需要深入到宏观经济系统内部去剖析。本文利用投入产出方法,从供给侧效应、需求侧效应、税制改革效应分析2007—2020年税制结构演变的动因机制及相关因素贡献。结果显示,这个时期内,税制结构呈现间接税比重下降、直接税比重上升的趋势,上述因素对税制结构演变都有着显著影响。因此,未来深化税制改革过程中,仍需以支持和保障产业分工深化细化、优化需求结构为重要导向,全面系统把握好改革方向、抓住关键时间节点。一方面,随着产业结构不断升级,直接税比重逐渐提高,需要顺应客观趋势深化税制改革,让税制结构始终适应于经济发展水平;另一方面,增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用和投资对优化供给结构的关键作用。Macroeconomics is a key factor in the evolution of tax system structure, and optimizing tax system structure requires in-depth analysis within the macroeconomic system. This article uses the input-output method to analyze the driving mechanisms and related factors contributing to the evolution of the tax system structure from 2007 to 2020 from the perspectives of supply side effects, demand side effects, and tax reform effects. The results show that during this period, the tax system structure exhibited a trend of decrease in the proportion of indirect taxes and increase in the proportion of direct taxes, and the three factors had a significant impact on the evolution of the tax structure. Therefore, in the process of deepening tax reform in the future, it is still necessary to take supporting and ensuring the deepening and refinement of industrial division of labor, optimizing demand structure as an important guidance, comprehensively and systematically grasping the direction of reform, and seizing key time nodes. On the one hand, with the continuous upgrading of industrial structure and the gradual increase in the proportion of direct taxes, we need to follow the objective trend and deepen tax system reform, so that the tax system structure can always adapt to the level of economic development;On the other hand, we should enhance the fundamental role of consumption in economic development and the key role of investment in optimizing the supply structure.

关 键 词：税制结构 供给侧效应 需求侧效应 税制改革效应 

分 类 号：F810.42[经济管理—财政学]