绿色信贷贴息政策是否影响了企业绿色转型——基于演化博弈动态分析与多时点DID的实证研究  

Are Green Credit Subsidy Policies Affecting the Green Transition of Enterprises--Based on the Dynamic Analysis of Evolutionary Games and Empirical Research Using Multi-Time Point DID

作　　者：何志婵 冯鲍 方舒 He Zhichan;Feng Bao;Fang Shu

机构地区：[1]广西大学经济学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2024年第11期95-113,共19页Public Finance Research

基　　金：广西哲学社会科学规划研究课题重点项目“重大公共卫生事件冲击下的广西地方金融风险防范化解研究”(20AJY001)。

摘　　要：本文运用演化博弈的方法,构建了政府—银行—企业三方演化博弈模型,刻画了绿色信贷贴息政策激励下主体行为决策机制与演化路径,并通过2008—2022年A股上市企业数据,采用多时点DID与中介效应模型,考察了绿色信贷贴息政策对企业绿色转型的影响与作用机制。研究发现:(1)政银企三方博弈模型主体间的策略选择互相影响,政府实施绿色信贷贴息政策可以促使企业选择绿色转型。(2)通过实证检验发现,绿色信贷贴息政策能够促进企业绿色转型且该结论在经过替换被解释变量、安慰剂检验等一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。(3)在绿色信贷贴息政策影响企业绿色转型的过程中,绿色信贷规模和绿色技术创新具有中介效应,绿色信贷贴息政策可以分别通过扩大绿色信贷规模和促进企业绿色技术创新从而推动企业绿色转型。(4)异质性分析表明,相较于民营企业和小市值企业,绿色信贷贴息政策能更有效推动国有企业和大型企业的绿色转型。本文有助于全面理解绿色信贷贴息政策设计的微观作用机制,为加强财政与金融政策协同、优化绿色经济政策体系、有效助推中国企业绿色转型提供了理论依据。This study employs the evolutionary game theory method to construct a tripartite evolutionary game model involving the government, banks, and enterprises, delineating the decision-making mechanisms and evolutionary pathways of the parties under the incentive of green credit interest subsidies. Using data from A-share listed companies in China from 2008 to 2022, the study adopts a multi-time point DID model and a mediation effect model to examine the impact of green credit subsidy policies on corporate green transformation and their action mechanisms. The results show that the strategy choices of the parties in the tripartite game model influence one another, and the government's implementation of green credit subsidy policies encourages enterprises to pursue green transformation. Empirical tests confirm that green credit interest subsidy policies significantly promote enterprise green transformation, and this conclusion remains robust after a series of checks, such as replacing dependent variables and conducting placebo tests. Furthermore, the policies influence enterprise green transformation through the mediation effects of expanding the scale of green credit and fostering green technological innovation. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that these policies are more effective in promoting green transformation in state-owned enterprises and large enterprises compared to private enterprises and small-cap companies.This study contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the micro-level mechanisms underlying the design of green credit interest subsidy policies and provides a theoretical foundation for enhancing fiscal and financial policy synergy,optimizing the green economic policy framework, and effectively advancing the green transformation of Chinese enterprises.

关 键 词：绿色信贷贴息 企业绿色转型 财金联动 三方演化博弈 多时点DID 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]