特朗普2.0版联盟战略与美国联盟体系的嬗变  

The Alliance Strategy of Trump 2.0 and the Transformation of the U.S.Alliance System

作　　者：袁征[1,2] 陈桂芸 YUAN Zheng;CHEN Guiyun(Institute of American Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Department of American Studies,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;School of International Politics and Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing,100007)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院美国研究所 [2]中国社会科学院大学美国研究系 [3]中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院,北京100007

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2025年第2期3-22,165,共21页Journal of International Security Studies

摘　　要：联盟体系是美国维系全球霸权的重要支柱,也是美国外交安全政策的基石,这构成了美国联盟的内在连贯性。但美国联盟体系发展又具有周期性规律,具体表现在联盟规模、功能排序、管理方式和盛衰强弱以及由此引发的地区安全结构的变迁上。在特朗普看来,联盟体系在美国霸权护持上作用有限,美国的付出多于收益,由此联盟战略在美国国家安全战略中地位下降。正是在商人“成本—收益”思维下,特朗普对盟友收益补偿的意愿明显不足。新一届特朗普政府的联盟政策可能呈现交易式双边外交与选择性多边主义的结合,且去意识形态化和去制度化色彩浓厚。未来美国联盟内部分歧将会增多,盟友战略自主性增强,联盟体系内部凝聚力趋于下降,联盟功能趋于失调,因而美国军事政治经济一体化联盟体系可能趋于松散化和碎片化,并导致联盟体系网络化进程明显放缓。这些变化虽然意味着全球和地区战略稳定性松动、地区安全结构的稳固性下降,但有助于推动中国所主张的伙伴关系导向的国际秩序影响力超越美国的盟友关系导向的国际秩序,而美国回避新的安全承诺、对盟友“双重再保证”客观上或有利于中美之间的和平竞争。中国应利用美国联盟发展的周期性规律,推动构建稳定的地区秩序,强化周边地区安全,彰显大国责任与担当。The alliance system serves as an important pillar for the United States to sustain its global hegemony and an inseparable cornerstone of its foreign and security policies,which constitutes the internal coherence of the U.S.alliance system.Nevertheless,the development of the U.S.alliance system follows a cyclical pattern manifested in its scale,strength,prioritized functions,and management approaches,as well as the ensuing alterations in regional security structures.In Trump’s perspective,the alliance system plays a limited role in maintaining hegemony as the United States incurs greater costs than reaping benefits,which results in decline in the status of the alliance strategy within the U.S.national security strategy.Under the“cost-benefit”mindset of a businessman,Trump demonstrates insufficient willingness to compensate U.S.allies for their contributions.The alliance policy of the new Trump administration may present a combination of transactional bilateral diplomacy and selective multilateralism,featuring a strong undertone of de-ideologization and de-institutionalization.In the future,the U.S.alliance system may witness more internal disagreements,increased autonomy of U.S.allies,eroded internal cohesion and more serious alliance dysfunctions.As a result,the integrated military-political-economic alliance system of the United States may become loosened and fragmented,and the networking process of the alliance system will notably decelerate.Although these changes signify a decline in the stability of the global and regional security structure and strategy,they are conducive to facilitating the influence of the international order oriented towards partnerships to surpass that of the U.S.-led allianceoriented international order.Moreover,the U.S.evasion of its“double reassurance”and new security commitments might objectively benefit peaceful competition between China and the United States.China should leverage the cyclical pattern of the U.S.alliance system to promote the construction of a stable regio

关 键 词：中美关系 美国外交 联盟战略 联盟体系 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系] D871.2[政治法律—政治学]