特朗普第二任期对华竞争战略前瞻  

The Forward-Looking of Trump’s China Policy in His Second Term

作　　者：王栋[1,2] 马涛 WANG Dong;MA Tao(School of International Studies,Peking University,Beijing,100871;Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding(iGCU),Peking University)

机构地区：[1]北京大学国际关系学院,北京100871 [2]北京大学中外人文交流研究基地

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2025年第2期23-45,165,166,共25页Journal of International Security Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“百年变局下全球化进路与人类命运共同体构建研究”(项目编号:21&ZD172);“北京高校卓越青年科学家计划项目”(项目编号:BJJWZYJH01201910001007)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：特朗普第二任期对华竞争战略及中美关系未来走向备受学界瞩目。在冷战后的经济全球化进程中美国制造业逐步空心化,工人阶级陷入困境,白人倍感身份焦虑,对外贸易逆差加剧,霸权体系被搭便车,因此从2016年以来,以反全球化、反自由贸易、排外反移民和民粹主义为特征的特朗普主义在美国政治中迅速崛起。特朗普主义认为美国精神被遗忘,美国陷入严重衰落,为此要让美利坚民族伟大复兴,极大地重塑和重构了美国国内政治和对外政策,也对国际关系格局带来巨大冲击。这是理解特朗普第二任期对华竞争战略根本逻辑及其内在限度的背景。“特朗普2.0版”将以关税作为“再平衡”中美贸易关系的政策工具,推动取消中国最惠国待遇,全方位对华安全竞争,既寻求中美合作共同打击毒品犯罪,也将在事关中国核心利益问题上对华韧性博弈,中美地缘竞争将升级到新的水平。美国对华关税战得不偿失,地缘竞争升级将削弱国际秩序稳定性,对华极限施压增加地缘冲突风险,泛安全化将波及中美人文交流领域。中国要坚持“抛弃幻想、做好准备、争取最好、不怕最差”的原则应对“特朗普2.0版”的冲击,争取战略主动,作为负责任大国筹划引领塑造新时代可持续的中美双边关系。The future trajectory of U.S.-China relations and Donald Trump’s foreign policy during his second term has garnered significant attention in academic circles.With the post-Cold War economic globalization,the United States has witnessed a gradual decline of its manufacturing sector,the plight of the working class,and the rise of identity anxiety among white Americans,coupled with increasing trade deficit and free-riding on the U.S.hegemony.Believing that U.S.engagement with China has failed,Trump argues that the American spirit has been forgotten and that the United States is in a state of decline,thus advocating for“Make America Great Again”.This context helps explain the fundamental logic and inherent limitations of Trump’s second-term policy toward China.The“Trump 2.0”approach would likely employ tariffs as a policy tool to“rebalance”trade relations with China,push for the cancellation of China’s most-favored-nation status,and engage in comprehensive security competition with China.While seeking cooperation between the two countries to combat drugrelated crimes,the Trump administration would also engage in long-lasting strategic competition on issues that concern China’s core interests,escalating the U.S.-China geopolitical competition to a new level.The U.S.tariff war against China has proven to be a losing game,and the escalation of geopolitical competition would weaken the stability of the international order.The U.S.maximum pressure strategy would increase the risk of geopolitical conflict and the pan-securitization of its China policies would undermine U.S.-China people-to-people exchanges.In dealing with the current situation,China must adhere to the strategic principle of“abandoning illusions,getting fully prepared,striving for the best,and not fearing the worst”in responding to the challenges posed by“Trump 2.0.”China needs to seize the initiative and,as a responsible major country,proactively plan and lead the shaping of a sustainable and constructive bilateral relationship

关 键 词：特朗普2.0版 对华竞争战略 关税战 贸易平衡 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系] D822.371.2[政治法律—政治学]