大国竞争态势、社会联盟与美国对竞争者的出口管制政策  

The Dynamics of Great Power Competition,Social Coalitions and the U.S.Export Controls on Competitors

作　　者：秦渝斌 QIN Yubin(Department of Political Science,Party School of Zhejiang Provincial Committee of the Communist Party of China(Zhejiang Institute of Administration),Hangzhou,311121)

机构地区：[1]中共浙江省委党校(浙江行政学院)政治学教研部 [2]浙江省“八八战略”创新发展研究院,杭州311121

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2025年第2期65-90,166,167,共28页Journal of International Security Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“美国联盟再造对中国周边秩序的冲击及我应对研究”(项目编号:24CGJ011);上海市智库青年领军人才专项课题“中美博弈背景下新型网络数字安全风险挑战及其治理”(项目编号:2024TRC009)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在不同的大国竞争态势中,美国的出口管制政策经历了数轮深刻的调整。出口管制既关涉美国的整体安全和经济利益,也牵扯不同产业的利益得失,是社会、国家和体系三个层次因素共同作用的结果。通过区分美国面临的不同大国竞争态势和社会联盟的政策影响力及偏好,可构建大国竞争态势左右社会联盟政策影响力和带动出口管制安全/经济效应,并导致美国对竞争对手出口管制调整的分析框架。在不同的大国竞争态势下,美国不同社会联盟影响政策的意愿和能力会产生不同程度的分化,出口管制的经济/安全效应凸显,从而推动美国对竞争者出口管制政策的变化。在大国竞争升级态势下,军工安全联盟的政策影响力显著上升,出口管制的安全效应凸显,带动美国加强对竞争者的出口管制;在大国竞争缓和态势下,科技商贸联盟的政策影响力上升,导致出口管制的经济效益凸显,推动美国放松对竞争者的出口管制。通过引入争议问题、质疑既有制度、劝服反对集团三个环节,社会联盟会推动政府调整对竞争者的出口管制。In the context of different dynamics of great power competition,the U.S.export control policies have undergone several rounds of profound adjustments.Export controls not only affect the overall security and economic interests of the United States but also involve the gains and losses of different industries.It results from the interplay of factors at the societal,national and systemic levels.By distinguishing different great power competition dynamics and varied policy influence and preferences of social coalitions,an analytical framework can be constructed to show how the dynamics of great power competition affect the policy influence of social coalitions,drive the security/economic effects of export controls to become prominent,and lead to adjustments of U.S.export controls on competitors.In the context of the escalation of great power competition,the policy influence of the military-industrial coalition significantly increases and the security effects of export controls become prominent,driving the United States to strengthen its export controls on competitors.Under the situation of mitigated competition,the policy influence of the technology-commerce coalition rises,tipping the balance in favor of economic benefits and promoting the United States to relax its export controls on competitors.By introducing controversial issues,questioning existing institutions and persuading opposing groups,social coalitions will encourage the government to adjust its export controls over competitors.

关 键 词：出口管制 大国竞争 社会联盟 经济安全 美国外交 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系] D871.2[政治法律—政治学]