施动还是缓行:异质威胁下的去安全化博弈  

Agency or Procrastination:The De-securitization Game under Heterogeneous Threats

作　　者：李骏[1] 陈子懿 LI Jun;CHEN Ziyi(Institute for Area Studies,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,510000;Hopkins-Nanjing Center,Nanjing University,Nanjing,210000)

机构地区：[1]中山大学区域国别研究院,广州510000 [2]南京大学-霍普金斯大学中美文化研究中心,南京210000

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2025年第2期91-118,167,共29页Journal of International Security Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号:42271269);国家社会科学基金项目(项目编号:21BGJ020);中山大学基本科研业务费项目(项目编号:24WKJC14)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：现有的去安全化理论大多聚焦于一元威胁而非多元威胁的去安全化逻辑,且较为关注存在性威胁的“绝对值”而非“相对威胁”信号在去安全化博弈中的作用。构建多元威胁去安全化博弈理论模型,有助于解释多元异质威胁作用于去安全化治理意愿的因果机制。基于威胁的本体性特征,异质威胁可分为原初威胁与比对威胁两大主体。在异质威胁的相关性与紧迫性这两大核心自变量的影响下,施动者对原初威胁的去安全化博弈选择将导向基础路径与演化路径两种模式。其中,施动者在基础路径中对原初威胁进行去安全化施动的意愿最强;在演化路径中,施动者虽然在初始阶段并不会呈现明显的去安全化倾向,但其持续的安全化会使治理逐步演化为基础路径模式,进而使施动者对原初威胁产生较强的去安全化意愿。印度尼西亚、玻利维亚与塞内加尔三国政府对其国内气候变化议题的去安全化治理案例,分别验证了基础路径、紧迫性演化路径和相关性演化路径理论假说,并可解释“全球南方”国家在全球气候合作治理中的逆向施动行为,即去安全化施动逻辑。The existing de-securitization theories predominantly focus on the logic of desecuritization under unidimensional threats rather than multidimensional threats.They emphasize the“absolute value”of existential threats while overlooking the role of“relative threat”signals in the de-securitization game.This paper aims to build a theoretical model of de-securitization game under heterogeneous threats to explain the causal mechanisms through which how multiple and divergent threats influence the willingness for de-securitization governance.Based on the ontological characteristics of threats,heterogeneous threats can be categorized into primary threats and comparative threats.Under the influence of two core independent variables of relevance and urgency related to heterogeneous threats,actors’desecuritization choices toward primary threats manifest in two pathways:the foundational path and the evolutionary path.As for the foundational path,actors exhibit the strongest willingness to pursue de-securitization of primary threats.As regards the evolutionary path,while no immediate de-securitization inclination emerges initially,sustained securitization gradually shifts governance toward the foundational path,thereby ultimately fostering stronger desecuritization intentions.Case studies concerning de-securitization governance on climate change issues in Indonesia,Bolivia,and Senegal validate respectively the theoretical hypotheses of the foundational path,urgency-driven evolutionary path and relevance-driven evolutionary path.These findings elucidate the“reverse-agency”behaviors of Global South nations in global climate cooperation rooted in the de-securitization logic.

关 键 词：去安全化 多元异质威胁 施动博弈 气候安全 族性安全 

分 类 号：D73[政治法律—政治学] D77[政治法律—中外政治制度] D815