当变革遭遇危机:北约推进气候变化职能扩展的战略驱动解释  

When Changes Encounter Crises:A Strategy-Driven Explanation of NATO’s Mandate Expansion in Climate Change

作　　者：周逸江 ZHOU Yijiang(School of Political Science and International Relations,Tongji University,Shanghai,200092)

机构地区：[1]同济大学政治与国际关系学院,上海200092

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2025年第2期119-141,167,168,共25页Journal of International Security Studies

摘　　要：核心议题危机的发生往往会对国际组织在新议题领域推进职能扩展构成挑战。然而,2022年俄乌冲突爆发以来,北约在气候议题领域的行动却持续推进。基于历史制度主义发展而来的战略驱动型职能扩展理论有助于阐明这一现象。战略驱动型职能扩展的实现,是战略价值、战略共识、战略压力和战略机遇四要素共同作用的结果。这类职能扩展建立在对新议题战略价值的共识基础之上,因而能够在遭遇与核心议题相关的外部冲击时,保持总体上的延续性和稳定性。2022年俄乌冲突爆发时,北约正处于战略驱动下的气候职能扩展进程中。介入气候议题的战略价值、成员国达成的战略共识、特朗普第一任期时面临的战略压力、拜登时期美国政策转向以及国际议程演进带来的契机,共同促成了北约气候变化职能的扩展。其职能扩展进程在遭遇2014年乌克兰危机和2022年俄乌冲突时的差异进一步证明了主导驱动力差异对变革进程的影响。这一发现拓展了组织变革与外部冲击互动的理论,有助于深化对全球气候安全治理格局演变的理解。The emergence of core issue crises often poses challenges to international organizations’efforts to advance mandate expansion into new issue areas.However,since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022,NATO’s actions on the issue of climate change haven’t shown any signs of being ignored.The theory of strategy-driven mandate expansion,which has derived from historical institutionalism,helps elucidate this phenomenon.The realization of strategy-driven mandate expansion is the result of the interplay of four factors:strategic value,strategic consensus,strategic pressure,and strategic opportunity.This type of mandate expansion is built upon a consensus on the strategic value of new issues and can therefore maintain overall continuity and stability when encountering external shocks related to core issues.When the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted in 2022,NATO was in the midst of a strategy-driven expansion of its climate function.Such factors like the strategic value of engaging in climate issues,the strategic consensus reached by member states,the strategic pressure faced by NATO during Trump’s first term,and the opportunities brought about by the U.S,policy shift and the evolution of the international agenda during the Biden era collectively facilitated the expansion of NATO’s mandate to climate change issues.The differences in NATO’s mandate expansion process when confronted with the 2014 Ukraine crisis and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict further demonstrate the impact of variations in dominant driving forces on the trajectory of changes.This finding expands the theory related to the interaction between organizational changes and external shocks,thus contributing to a deeper understanding of the evolution of the global climate security governance.

关 键 词：制度变革 职能扩展 北约 气候变化 战略驱动 历史制度主义 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系] P467[政治法律—政治学]