动荡重塑的能源图景——对“十五五”时期国内外能源发展形势的若干判断  

A Turbulent and Reshaped Energy Landscape——Judgements on China and international energy development situation during the“15th Five-Year”Plan period

作　　者：中国石油集团经济技术研究院“十五五”规划研究团队 “15^(th)Five-Year”planning and research team of CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute

机构地区：[1]不详

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2025年第1期2-10,共9页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：“十五五”期间,世界将处于动荡变革期,大国博弈竞争升级,经济复苏进程曲折,产业链供应链重构。美国新一届政府对全球政治、经济、贸易、治理均将产生重大影响。但世界多极化的趋势和新一轮科技革命的浪潮,将带给我们一个持续重塑的能源新图景。中国的能源转型实践“蹄疾步稳”,加速建设新型能源体系,如期实现碳达峰承诺,将为推动全球能源转型、维护产业链供应链稳定和应对气候变化做出更大贡献。中国石油集团经济技术研究院“十五五”规划研究团队基于对地缘政治、经济、技术、国际合作、能源转型、油气市场和石油企业等方面的深入研究,形成了对“十五五”时期国内外能源发展形势的11个判断。During the“15^(th) Five-Year”period,the world is in a time of turbulence and transformation,with intensified great power competition,a tortuous economic recovery process,and the reconstruction of supply chains.The new U.S.administration will have a significant impact on global politics,economy,trade,and governance.However,the trend toward a multipolar world and the wave of the new technological revolution will bring us a continuously reshaped energy landscape.China’s energy transition is progressing steadily and rapidly,accelerating the construction of a new energy system and fulfilling its carbon peak commitment on schedule,which will make greater contributions to promoting global energy transition,maintaining the stability of supply chains,and addressing climate change.Based on in-depth research into geopolitics,economy,technology,international cooperation,energy transition,oil and gas markets,and oil companies,the research team of CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute has formed 11 judgments on the domestic and international energy development situation during the“15^(th) Five-Year”period.

关 键 词：地缘政治 能源转型 油气市场 新型能源体系 新能源发展 

分 类 号：F43[经济管理—产业经济] F47F407.2F416.2F426.2