“双碳”背景下中国公路交通用能发展趋势及思考  

Trends and thoughts on the energy-consuming development of highway transportation in China under the background of“dual carbon”

作　　者：仇玄[1] 孔劲媛[1] QIU Xuan;KONG Jinyuan(PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute)

机构地区：[1]中国石油规划总院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2025年第1期62-69,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：交通领域是中国重要的用能部门,产生的碳排放占全国碳排总量的15%左右。《2030年前碳达峰行动方案》对交通领域作出了具体部署,要求交通领域加快推进绿色低碳转型。当前中国公路交通用能逐步向绿色低碳方向转变,电力、天然气等能源快速发展,氢能也被寄予厚望,交通领域逐渐形成了“以汽、柴油为主体,气、电加速渗透,醇、氢少量补充”的用能结构。着眼未来,多种替代能源将进入加速替代周期,特别是电动力、天然气等较汽柴油具备经济性的燃料将以更快速度进入交通领域,氢能、甲醇等尚不具备经济性的能源则在政策支持下逐步示范推广。到2035年,电力将成为中国公路交通领域的主体能源(占比约52%),天然气(15%)和汽柴油(33%)也占有重要市场份额,交通用能进入多足鼎立时代。在此发展过程中,石油石化行业需要重视终端需求转变,加快转型速度;新旧产业的衔接发展、各类能源的路网养护责权公平等问题需要有关部门重新审视和关注。The transportation sector is an important energy-consuming sector in China,generating about 15%of the country’s total carbon emissions.“Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking Before 2030”has made specific deployments for the transportation sector,requiring it to accelerate the green and low-carbon transition.At present,China’s highway transportation energy use is gradually transforming to a green and low-carbon direction.This is driven by with the rapid development of electricity,natural gas,and other energy sources,and high hopes for hydrogen energy,which has gradually formed the energy use structure of“gasoline and diesel as the mainstays,with accelerated penetration of gas and electricity,and methanol and hydrogen as minor supplements”in the field of transportation.Focusing to the future,a variety of alternative energies will enter the accelerated replacement cycle,especially electric power,natural gas,and other fuels which are more economical compared to gasoline and diesel,will enter the field of transportation at a faster rate.Hydrogen,methanol,and other energies that are not yet economically viable will be gradually demonstrated and promoted under the support of the policy.By 2035,electricity will become the main energy in China’s highway transportation sector,accounting for about 52%of the energy mix,while natural gas will make up 15%,and gasoline and diesel will account for 33%.The transportation energy sector will thus enter an era of multi-polarity.In this development process,the petroleum and petrochemical industry needs to pay attention to the transition of end-user demand and accelerate the speed of transition.The development and integration of old and new industries,as well as issues related to the fairness of responsibilities and rights in the maintenance of various energy infrastructure networks,need to be re-examined and given attention by relevant departments.

关 键 词：交通运输 用能结构 汽柴油 液化天然气(LNG) 电力 氢能 车辆 

分 类 号：F403.3[经济管理—产业经济] F407.22F424.1F426.22