2025年国际原油市场关键影响因素分析及价格展望  

Analysis of the key factors influencing the international crude oil market and its price outlook in 2025

作　　者：陈佳睿 CHEN Jiarui(China International United Petroleum&Chemicals Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]中国国际石油化工联合有限责任公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2025年第1期77-84,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2025年,供需基本面、宏观经济和地缘政治三大因素将共同作用和影响油价的波动趋势。美国经济的不确定性,中国经济的复苏,欧洲经济的低增长,是主要的宏观经济因素。欧佩克闲置产能寻求增产,非欧佩克产油国产量强劲增长,中国石油需求放缓,全球石油供大于求,是主要的供需基本面因素。美国的制裁,乌克兰危机,中东地区冲突,是主要的地缘政治因素。2025年上半年,欧佩克推迟减产、乌克兰危机不确定性等因素或支撑布伦特油价在70美元/桶上方震荡;下半年,中美贸易战发展态势、石油市场供应过剩幅度和地缘局势变化将主导国际油价走势,布伦特油价或跌破过去两年的震荡区间底部70美元/桶,在60美元/桶附近重新寻底。总体看,石油市场多空因素交织,但基本面利空因素更占主导,2025年布伦特油价波动重心下降,波动区间在65~85美元/桶,底部支撑在60美元/桶,上半年波动中枢高于下半年。In 2025,supply and demand fundamentals,macroeconomics,and geopolitics will interact to influence the volatile trend of oil prices.Uncertainty in the U.S.economy,China’s economic recovery,and low economic growth in Europe are the main macroeconomic factors.OPEC’s idle capacity seeking to increase production,strong growth in output from non-OPEC oil-producing countries,China’s slowing oil demand,and global oil oversupply are the main supply and demand fundamentals.U.S.sanctions,the Ukraine issue,and the Middle East conflict,are the main geopolitical factors.In the first half of 2025,OPEC delayed production cuts,uncertainties of the Ukraine issue,and other factors may support the Brent oil price in the oscillation above$70 per barrel.The development of the US-China trade conflict,the oversupply in the oil market,and the change of the geopolitical situation will dominate the trend of the international oil price in the second half of the year.The Brent price may fall below the bottom of the past two years’range at$70 per barrel,potentially bottoming out near$60 per barrel.The oil market will be influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors,with bearish fundamentals playing a more significant role.It is expected that Brent prices would shift lower in 2025,with a projected range of$65 to$85 per barrel and a bottom support level of$60 per barrel.The price midpoint is likely to be higher in the first half of the year compared to the second half.

关 键 词：全球原油市场 原油价格 宏观经济 供应与需求 地缘政治 中美贸易战 欧佩克 美国页岩油 

分 类 号：F405[经济管理—产业经济] F407.22F416.22