基于体温调节模型的老年人热安全风险预警系统  

Thermal safety risk warning system for elderly people based on thermoregulation model

作　　者：郑国忠 贾锐麟 易文文 岳欣茹 ZHENG Guozhong;JIA Ruilin;YI Wenwen;YUE Xinru(School of Energy Power and Mechanical Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding Hebei 071003,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学能源动力与机械工程学院,河北保定071003

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2025年第1期25-31,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(20YJAZH138)。

摘　　要：为降低老年人高温天气下的热安全风险,基于体温调节模型建立老年人热安全预警系统。通过改进经典体温调节模型中的物理模型和主被动系统,构建适用于老年人的改进体温调节模型,并利用已公开试验数据验证改进模型的准确性;利用模型模拟老年人在高温环境中的体温变化,并通过统计学方法分析模拟结果,确定各影响因素对老年人热安全的影响;建立老年人热安全风险预警系统,并通过案例分析演示该预警系统。结果表明:改进模型能够准确模拟老年人的体温变化,均方根误差小于0.12℃;活动强度显著影响热安全,标准化回归系数β大于0.8;随着热暴露时间的增加,活动强度对热安全的影响减弱(β从0.945下降到0.806),环境因素的影响增强(温度和湿度的β从0.249和0.137上升到0.370和0.348);在预警系统案例分析中,保定/香港地区休息和工作老年人连续活动的安全时长分别为172/175和108/122 min;老年人在该日热安全风险最大的时段为17:00—18:00。A thermal safety warning system was established based on a thermoregulation model to mitigate the thermal safety risk for elderly people under high-temperature conditions.Firstly,the improved model suitable for the elderly was established by replacing the physical model and adjusting the active and passive systems in the classical model.The improved model was validated using publicly available experimental data.Secondly,the model simulated the temperature changes in elderly people in high-temperature environments.Statistical analysis was used to assess the impact of various parameters on thermal safety.Finally,based on the analysis results and the improved model,a thermal safety risk warning system for elderly people was developed.The warning system was demonstrated through a case study.Results indicate that the improved model accurately simulates the body temperature of elderly people,with a root mean squared error less than 0.12℃.Physical activity intensity significantly impacts thermal safety,with a standardized regression coefficient β larger than 0.8.As heat exposure time increases,the impact of activity intensity on thermal safety is decreased(β decreases from 0.945 to 0.806),while the influence of environmental factors is increased(β of temperature and humidity increases from 0.249 and 0.137 to 0.370 and 0.348).In the case study,the safe duration of continuous activities for the resting and working elderly people in Baoding/Hong Kong region is 172/175 minutes and 108/122 minutes,respectively.The highest thermal safety risk period for elderly people on that day is between 17:00 and 18:00.

关 键 词：体温调节模型 老年人 热安全 风险预警系统 活动强度 

分 类 号：X912[环境科学与工程—安全科学]