基于WSR-可拓云理论的地铁车站火灾安全韧性评估  

Resilience assessment of fire safety in subway stations based on WSR-extension cloud theory

作　　者：汤青慧 刘硕 张瑾 TANG Qinghui;LIU Shuo;ZHANG Jin(School of Management Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,China;University Research Center for Smart City Construction and Management of Shandong Province,Qingdao 266520,China;School of Civil Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao Shandong 266520,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学管理工程学院,山东青岛266520 [2]山东省高校智慧城市建设管理研究中心,山东青岛266520 [3]青岛理工大学土木工程学院,山东青岛266520

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2025年第1期154-162,共9页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金资助(41702320)。

摘　　要：为解决地铁车站火灾安全韧性评估过程中模糊性、随机性等问题,以有效提升地铁车站火灾安全韧性水平,构建基于物理-事理-人理(WSR)-可拓云理论的地铁车站火灾安全韧性评估方法。首先,以WSR方法论为基础,围绕“物理”“事理”“人理”分析地铁车站火灾安全韧性影响因素,结合韧性吸收、抵抗、恢复和适应能力,从设备因素、环境因素、组织管理、物质技术和人员因素5个方面构建地铁车站火灾安全韧性评估指标体系;其次,基于盲数理论构建盲数矩阵并计算定性指标综合得分,结合可拓云理论得出地铁车站火灾安全韧性等级;最后,以青岛地铁某站为例开展实例分析。结果表明:该地铁车站火灾安全韧性等级为Ⅳ级,处于较高韧性水平,可信度因子θ=0.0034<0.01,表明评估结果具有较高可信度。WSR-可拓云理论评估模型可为地铁车站火灾安全韧性评估提供理论依据。In order to solve the problems of ambiguity and randomness in the process of fire safety resilience assessment of subway stations,and then effectively improve the level of fire safety resilience of subway stations,the fire safety resilience assessment model for subway stations based on WSR-extension cloud theory was constructed.First,based on WSR methodology,the factors affecting the fire safety resilience of subway stations were analyzed around"physical","matter",and"human".Combined with the characterization of the resilience absorption,resistance,recovery and adaptive ability,the fire safety resilience assessment index system of subway stations was established in five aspects,namely,equipment factors,environmental factors,organization and management,material and technology,and personnel factors.Second,based on the blind number theory to construct the blind number matrix and calculate the comprehensive score of qualitative indexes,the fire safety resilience level of subway stations is derived by using the theory of extension cloud theory.Finally,a station of the Qingdao subway was used as an example to carry out the example analysis.The results show that the subway station fire safety resilience level ofⅣ,in the higher resilience level,the credibility factor=0.0034<0.01,indicating that the assessment results have a high degree of credibility.The WSR-extension cloud theory assessment model can provide a theoretical basis for the fire safety resilience assessment of subway stations.

关 键 词：物理-事理-人理(WSR)方法论 可拓云理论 地铁车站 火灾安全韧性评估 盲数理论 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学]