总人口增长转折期的人口区域分布:现状、问题与对策  

Regional Distribution of Population during the Transition Period of Total Population Growth:Current Situation,Problems,and Countermeasures

作　　者：卓贤[1] 王訸 朱妮 侯永志[1] ZHUO Xian;WANG He;ZHU Ni;HOU Yong-zhi

机构地区：[1]国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部

出　　处：《改革》2025年第2期119-131,共13页Reform

摘　　要：在总人口增长出现转折的背景下,我国区域间人口分布失衡加剧,人口格局呈现南北分布差距拉大、人口集聚与人口收缩相伴、老工业地区等特殊类型地区人口下降明显等特征。为分析中国出现人口“未富先减”和区域分化加剧的现象,提出一个“区域分化—人口流动—总人口下降”的正反馈累积循环机制,以解释人口流动、区域发展和总人口变化的内在关联。在两个“加速器”的持续作用下,人口流动的负外部性凸显,形成大城市病、收缩城市发展不可持续等问题。为此,应以有效的政策促进人口及其所携带要素在地区间和城乡间合理布局,实现人口、产业与资源的合理配置。Against the backdrop of a turning point in total population growth,the imbalance in population distribution between regions in China has intensified,with a widening gap in population distribution between the north and south,population agglomeration and contraction accompanying each other,and a significant decline in population in special types of areas such as old industrial areas.To analyze the phenomenon of population decline before becoming rich and the intensification of regional differentiation in China,a positive feedback cumulative cycle mechanism of"regional differentiation-population mobility-total population decline"is proposed to explain the intrinsic relationship between population mobility,regional development,and total population changes.Under the continuous action of two"accelerators",the negative externalities of population mobility have become prominent,leading to problems such as urban diseases and unsustainable development of shrinking cities.Therefore,effective policies should be implemented to optimize the reasonable distribution of population and its carrying factors between regions and between urban and rural areas,in order to achieve a rational allocation of population,industry,and resources.

关 键 词：人口增长 人口集聚 人口区域分布 人口收缩型城市 

分 类 号：C924[社会学—人口学]