1900-2023年大型火山喷发对西北太平洋热带气旋频率的影响  

Impacts of major volcanic activities on the frequency of Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones from 1900 to 2023

作　　者：孙鸿根 韩岩松 姜伟 黄英雪 梁珍怡 余克服 Sun Honggen;Han Yansong;Jiang Wei;Huang Yingxue;Liang Zhenyi;Yu Kefu(Guangxi Laboratory on the Study of Coral Reefs in the South China Sea,School of Marine Sciences,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Guangzhou),Guangzhou 511458,China)

机构地区：[1]广西大学海洋学院广西南海珊瑚礁研究重点实验室,广西南宁530004 [2]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(广州),广东广州511458

出　　处：《海洋学报》2024年第11期1-12,共12页

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFF0804801);广西壮族自治区重大人才项目(GXR-1BGQ2424020);大学生创新创业训练计划(202310593498)。

摘　　要：大型火山喷发后形成的平流层硫酸盐气溶胶层会抑制热带气旋的生成和发展,但相关研究主要集中在大西洋,较少涉及其他海域。西北太平洋是生成热带气旋最多的海域,探索其气候影响因素有利于深度理解热带气旋的生成和发展机制。本文根据记录在国际最佳轨道数据库和中国气象局数据库的西北太平洋热带气旋数据,比较了1900-2023年大型火山喷发前后西北太平洋海表温度和热带气旋数量的变化,从而对大型火山喷发对西北太平洋的热带气旋活动的影响进行了讨论。通过比较火山喷发前两年和喷发后两年内热带气旋数量的变化,发现:在大型火山喷发后西北太平洋热带气旋生成数量显著减少。海表温度显著响应了低纬度火山的喷发,而对于高纬度火山的喷发则没有明显反应。本研究表明,大型火山喷发后气溶胶强迫的增加与热带气旋频次联系紧密,但其造成的海表温度降低可能并非热带气旋减少的直接原因,其影响机制可能与气溶胶强迫造成的热带辐合带偏移有关,但仍需进一步探究。The stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer formed after large volcanic eruptions can inhibit the formation and development of tropical cyclones.But relevant studies mainly focus on the Atlantic Ocean,and few involve other sea areas.The Northwest Pacific Ocean is the area where most tropical cyclones are generated.Exploring the climate influencing factors is helpful for us to deeply understand the generation and development mechanism of tropical cyclones.Based on the data of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific Ocean recorded in the International Optimum Orbit Database and the China Meteorological Administration database,the changes of sea surface temperature and the number of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific Ocean before and after major volcanic eruptions during 1900−2023 are compared,and the effects of major volcanic eruptions on tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific Ocean are discussed.By comparing the number of tropical cyclones two years before the eruption and two years after the eruption,we found that the number of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific decreased significantly after a major eruption.The sea surface temperature significantly responds to low-latitude volcanic eruptions,but does not significantly respond to high-latitude volcanic eruptions.Our study shows that the increase of aerosol forcing after large volcanic eruptions is closely related to the frequency of tropical cyclones,but the decrease of sea surface temperature caused by it may not be the direct cause of the decrease of tropical cyclones,and its mechanism may be related to the migration of the intertropical convergence zone caused by aerosol forcing,which still needs further investigation.

关 键 词：火山喷发 热带气旋 西北太平洋 海表温度 低纬度 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]