西汉水流域径流变化特征及归因分析  

Runoff evolution in the Xihan River Basin and its attribution analysis

作　　者：高国琰 孙栋元 崔艳强 王兴繁 武兰珍 马亚丽 舒和平 GAO Guoyan;SUN Dongyuan;CUI Yanqiang;WANG Xingfan;WU Lanzhen;MA Yali;SHU Heping(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学水利水电工程学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2025年第1期63-76,87,共15页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：甘肃省高等学校青年博士基金项目(2022QB-070);甘肃农业大学科技创新基金项目(GAU-QDFC-2021-16);甘肃省水利科学试验研究与技术推广项目(23GSLK084、23GSLK087)。

摘　　要：径流演变特征及其归因分析研究对于区域水资源的高效利用具有重要的科学意义。以西汉水流域1960—2022年逐月实测径流数据作为基础资料,采用基尼系数、洛伦兹不对称系数、ITA创新趋势法、Pettitt检验法等多种水文统计方法,分析流域径流年内分配特征、年际趋势性、突变性、持续性及周期性等演变规律,并探讨气候变化与人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明:西汉水流域径流年内分配不均匀,汛期径流量占全年总量的2/3左右,多年径流的平均集中期出现在7月且有提前趋势;流域多年径流量以0.597×10^(8) m^(3)/10 a的平均速率减小,基于持续性分析结果,未来若干年内径流量将继续维持该减小趋势;径流主要突变点可能出现在1993年且具有明显的丰-枯交替的周期变化;上、下游和支流径流量的主周期几乎一致,均在41~47 a之间变化,中游径流主周期为28a;累积斜率变化率、双累积曲线法计算气候变化对流域径流量减小的贡献率分别为12.68%和19.75%,计算人类活动对流域径流量减小的贡献率分别为87.32%和80.25%,西汉水流域径流量逐年减小的主要因素是人类活动。研究结果可为区域水资源科学利用及合理调配提供基础支撑。The study of runoff evolution characteristics and their attribution analysis is crucial for promoting the efficient use of regional water resources.This study utilizes monthly runoff data of the Xihan River Basin from 1960 to 2022,and various hydrological statistical methods for the analysis.These methods include the Gini coefficient,Lorenz asymmetry coefficient,innovative trend approach(ITA),and Pettitt test method.The analysis focuses on annual distribution characteristics,interannual trends,abrupt changes,persistence,periodicity,and the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff variations.The results indicate that runoff distribution within the year in the Xihan River Basin is uneven,with approximately 2/3 of annual runoff occurring during the flood season.In addition,the average concentration period of multi-year runoff occurs in July,showing a trend of earlier occurrence alongside an average decline rate of 59.7×10^(6) m^(3)/10a in multi-year runoff.Based on persistence analysis results,runoff is expected to continue the declining trend in the coming years.It is presumed that the primary abrupt change point in runoff likely occurred in 1993,showing a distinct alternating cycle of flood and drought.The dominant periodicity of runoff in the upstream,downstream,and tributaries is consistent,ranging from 41 to 47 a,while the midstream shows a periodicity of 28 a.According to the cumulative slope variation rate and double cumulative curve method,the contribution rate of climate change to runoff reduction in the basin are 12.68%and 19.75%;while that of human activities to runoff reduction are 87.32%and 80.25%,respectively.Therefore,the primary factor influencing the annual decrease in runoff in the Xihan River Basin is human activities.These research findings can provide a technical support for the scientific utilization and rational allocation of regional water resources.

关 键 词：径流特征变化 ITA创新趋势分析法 气候变化 人类活动 西汉水流域 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]