中国归因于高BMI的结直肠癌疾病负担及其趋势预测  

The burden of colorectal cancer attributed to high BMI and its trend prediction in China

作　　者：吴丹 宇传华[1] WU Dan;YU Chuanhua(School of Public Health,Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei 430071,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学公共卫生学院,湖北武汉430071

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2025年第2期1-5,29,共6页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(82173626)。

摘　　要：目的研究1990-2021年中国归因于高体重指数(Body Mass Index,BMI)的结直肠癌疾病负担变化趋势,并对2022-2035年死亡率进行预测。方法利用2021全球疾病负担数据,分析1990-2021年中国归因于高BMI的结直肠癌死亡率和DALY(Disability-adjusted Life Years,DALY)率及其标化率的变化趋势,计算其平均年度变化百分比(Average Annual Percent Change,AAPC)。通过年龄-时期-队列(Age-Period-Cohort,APC)模型评估归因死亡率的年龄时期队列效应,并采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型(Bayesian age-period-cohort models,BAPC)对2022-2035年中国归因于高BMI的结直肠癌死亡率进行预测。结果1990-2021年,中国高BMI所致结直肠癌的标化死亡率(Age-standardized Mortality Rate,ASMR)和标化DALY率(Age-standardized Disability-adjusted Life Years Rate,ASDR)显著上升,危险因素排名分别从第9升至第5位和第4位,AAPC值分别为2.43%(95%CI:2.29~2.57)和2.33%(95%CI:2.21~2.46),其增速超过全球及各个社会人口学指数地区。男性的疾病负担显著高于女性,死亡率的年均变化率为女性的2.37倍。此外,死亡率随年龄增长显著增加,队列效应亦表现出较高的死亡风险。预测显示,2022-2035年间,中国归因于高BMI的结直肠癌死亡率仍将继续上升,累积增幅达53.06%。结论中国归因于高BMI的结直肠癌疾病负担持续加重,男性及老年人群风险尤为显著。应通过优化公共卫生政策,包括推广健康饮食、加强体重管理、促进体力活动和完善癌症筛查策略,减少高BMI相关的结直肠癌负担。Objective To study the trend in the burden of colorectal cancer attributed to high body mass index(BMI)in China from 1990 to 2021,and to predict the mortality rate from 2022 to 2035.Methods Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease data,this paper analyzed the trends of colorectal cancer mortality and Disability-adjusted Life Years(DALY)rates and their standardized rates attributed to high BMI in China from 1990 to 2021,and calculated their average annual percent change(AAPC).Age-period-cohort(APC)models were applied to assess the age,period,and cohort effects on mortality,and the Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)models were used to predict the mortality rate of colorectal cancer attributed to high BMI in China from 2022 to 2035.Results From 1990 to 2021,the standardized mortality rate(Age-standardized Mortality Rate,ASMR)and standardized DALY rate(Age-standardized Disability-adjusted Life Years Rate,ASDR)of colorectal cancer caused by high BMI in China increased significantly,and the ranking of risk factors rose from 9th to 5th and 4th respectively,with AAPC values of 2.43%(95%CI:2.29-2.57)and 2.33%(95%CI:2.21-2.46),which outpaced the global and each Socio-demographic Index(SDI)regions.The disease burden of male was significantly higher than that of female,and the net drifts in mortality rate of colorectal cancer associated with high BMI were 2.37 times higher than females.In addition,the mortality rate increased significantly with age,and showed a year-on-year increasing trend,and the cohort effect also showed a higher risk of death.It was predicted that the mortality rate of colorectal cancer attributed to high BMI in China will continue to rise in the future,increasing by 53.06%from 2022 to 2035.Conclusion In China,the disease burden of colorectal cancer attributed to high BMI continues to increase,especially in the male and elderly population.The colorectal burden associated with high BMI should be reduced by optimizing public health policies,including promoting healthy diet,enhancing weight management,promo

关 键 词：结直肠癌 高BMI 疾病负担 死亡率 伤残调整寿命年 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]