基于德尔菲法的突发重大传染病社区韧性评价指标体系  

Community resilience evaluation index system based on Delphi method for emergent major infectious diseases

作　　者：孙文 李珍 陈佳林[1,2] 徐浩 韦莉 吴晓晓 SUN Wen;LI Zhen;CHEN Jialin;XU Hao;WEI Li;WU Xiaoxiao(Hospital for Skin Diseases,Shandong First Medical University,Jinan,Shandong 250022,China;Shandong Provincial Institute of Dermatology and Venereology,Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences,Jinan,Shandong 250022,China)

机构地区：[1]山东第一医科大学附属皮肤病医院,山东济南250022 [2]山东省皮肤病性病防治研究所,山东济南250022

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2025年第2期6-11,共6页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家社会科学基金国家应急管理体系建设研究专项“突发公共卫生事件的社区韧性生态系统模型及适应性治理研究”(20VYJ056);山东第一医科大学(山东省医学科学院)青年科学基金培育资助计划(202202-037)。

摘　　要：目的构建科学、完整、可操作性强的突发重大传染病社区韧性评价指标体系。方法基于社会生态系统理论,使用内容分析法、边界分析法形成初步的评价指标体系;通过专题小组讨论对指标体系进行补充和修正;通过两轮德尔菲法明确最终的指标体系及指标权重。结果检验了两轮专家咨询的专家积极系数、专家权威系数、专家意见协调系数;根据“界值法”筛选原则,对指标进行筛选,在第二轮德尔菲专家咨询中确定了各指标的权重,指标体系的信度检验结果Cronbach′sα=0.939,说明指标体系具有较高的信度;对7个一级指标进行因子分析,抽样适当性测度(MSA)值均>0.5,通过效度检验。结论构建了一套能够准确反映突发重大传染病社区韧性水平的评价指标体系,包括7个一级指标、21个二级指标、54个三级指标、108个四级指标,实现了对隐性的社区韧性水平的量化评价。Objective To establish a scientific,comprehensive,and operable community resilience evaluation index system for emergent major infectious diseases.Methods Based on the social ecosystem theory,a preliminary evaluation index system was formed by using content analysis and boundary analysis.The index system was then supplemented and revised through panel discussions.The final index system and index weights were clarified by two rounds of Delphi method.Results The expert positive coefficient,expert authority coefficient,and expert coordination coefficient of the two rounds of expert consultations were examined.According to the screening principle of the"threshold method",the indicators were screened,and the weights of each indicator were determined in the second round of Delphi expert consultation.The analysis of the reliability of the indicator system showed Cronbach′sα=0.399,indicating that the indicator system had a relatively high reliability.Factor analysis was carried out on 7 primary indicators,and the measure of sampling adequacy(MSA)values were all greater than 0.5,which passed the validity test.Conclusion A set of evaluation index system that can accurately reflect the resilience level of communities with emergent major infectious diseases has been constructed,including 7 primary indicators,21 secondary indicators,54 tertiary indicators,and 108 tertiary indicators,which has realized the quantitative evaluation of the hidden resilience level of communities.

关 键 词：德尔菲法 突发重大传染病 社区韧性 评价指标 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学]