1990-2021年基于GBD数据分析中国百日咳疾病负担变化趋势  

Trend in pertussis disease burden in China based on the Global Burden of Disease data in 1990-2021

作　　者：黄成伟 劳雪琼 梁夏楠 周志峰[2] 蔡琳[2] 陈海滨[1,4] HUANG Chengwei;LAO Xueqiong;LIANG Xianan;ZHOU Zhifeng;CAI Lin;CHEN Haibing(Nanning Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanning,Guangxi 530023,China;Futian District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518028,China;Shenzhen Field Epidemiology Training Program,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518055,China;Nanning Field Epidemiology Training Program,Nanning,Guangxi 530023,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区南宁市疾病预防控制中心,广西南宁530023 [2]广东省深圳市福田区疾病预防控制中心,广东深圳518028 [3]广东省深圳市现场流行病学培训项目,广东深圳518055 [4]广西壮族自治区南宁市现场流行病学培训项目,广西南宁530023

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2025年第2期12-16,共5页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：广西壮族自治区医疗卫生重点学科突发急性传染性疾病防制学科[桂卫科教发(2022)4];南宁市医学重点学科传染病防制学科[No.南卫医(2021)4]。

摘　　要：目的此研究旨在分析1990-2021年中国百日咳疾病负担的变化趋势,为制定有效的防控策略提供依据。方法利用2021年全球疾病负担(Global Burdenof Disease Study,GBD)数据库中1990-2021年中国百日咳疾病发病数、死亡数和DALYs及其年龄标化率,使用描述性统计方法分析百日咳疾病负担特征,利用Joinpoint回归模型分析百日咳疾病负担的变化趋势。结果1990-2021年中国百日咳发病数、死亡数和DALYs分别从150.38万例、10951例、95.49万人年下降至6.54万例、548例、4.65万人年,分别下降了95.65%、95.00%和95.13%。相应的年龄标化率也分别下降了93.58%、92.47%、92.53%。Joinpoint回归模型显示,百日咳的整体标化发病率、死亡率和DALYs率均呈现显著下降趋势(AAPC分别为-8.32%、-9.65%和-9.58%,P<0.001),女性的疾病负担略高于男性,年龄以10岁以下为主,尤其是1岁以内婴幼儿疾病负担最重,并随着年龄的增长,疾病负担降低。结论1990-2021年间,中国百日咳疾病负担总体呈显著下降趋势,存在性别和年龄差异。应重点关注10岁以下儿童,尤其是1岁以内婴幼儿的百日咳防控。Objective To analyze the trends in the disease burden of pertussis in China from 1990 to 2021,and to provide a basis for the development of effective prevention and control strategies.Methods Using the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD)database,the incidence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs),as well as the age-standardized rates of pertussis in China from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed.Descriptive statistical methods were employed to analyze the characteristics of the pertussis disease burden,and the Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends in pertussis disease burden.Results From 1990 to 2021,the incidence,mortality,and DALYs of pertussis in China decreased from 1503800 cases,10951 deaths,and 954900 person-years to 65400 cases,548 deaths,and 46500 person-years,representing a decrease of 95.65%,95.00%,and 95.13%,respectively.The corresponding age-standardized rates also decreased by 93.58%,92.47%,and 92.53%,respectively.The Joinpoint regression model revealed a significant downward trend in the age-standardized incidence,mortality,and DALYs rates for pertussis(AAPCs were-8.32%,-9.65%,and-9.58%,respectively,P<0.001).The disease burden was slightly higher in females than in males,with the majority of cases occurring in children under 10 years old,particularly in infants under 1 year old,where the burden was the heaviest.As age increased,the disease burden decreased.Conclusion Between 1990 and 2021,the overall disease burden of pertussis in China showed a significant downward trend,with gender and age differences.Special attention should be given on the prevention and control of pertussis in children under 10 years old,especially in infants under 1 year old.

关 键 词：中国 百日咳 疾病负担 趋势变化 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]