CCS相较储能何时拥有成本优势?从中国电力系统低碳转型出发  

When will CCs be more cost-efficient than bess? Based on China's low carbon transition of the power sector

作　　者：林伯强 刘智威 LIN Boqiang;LIU Zhiwei(China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy,School of Management,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学管理学院中国能源政策研究院,厦门361005

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2025年第1期109-126,共18页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“碳中和框架下的能源产业升级,环境污染治理与经济高质量发展”(72133003);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“‘双碳’目标对生产率的中长期影响测度与动态监测研究”(22JZD008)。

摘　　要：在低碳转型的背景下,中国的电力系统需要尽快完成由以煤电为主转向以风光等可再生能源为主的低碳转型.随着风光发电在电力供给侧的占比逐渐增加,由风光发电带来的波动性和不稳定性等问题会给电网带来越来越大的运行压力,同时中国的电力需求也依然保持较快的增长速度,面对需求侧的增长和供给侧的结构转变,电网需要配置更多的灵活性电源来保证自身安全稳定运行.“储能+风光”和“CCS (carbon capture and storage,碳捕获及封存)+煤电”是两种可行的低碳稳定的灵活电源方案,本研究基于小时级电力负荷,通过构建仿真模型平衡电力供需,考虑碳排放,电力需求,可再生发展目标等因素,评估并对比“储能+风光”和“CCS+煤电”两种方案.结果显示风光发电占比较低时,“储能+风光”成本更低;风光发电占比较高时,“CCS+煤电”成本更低.可以预见,未来“储能+风光”和“CCS+煤电”都有其发展的必要性.政府应当并重布局发展CCS和储能,保证在“CCS+煤电”成本优势点到来时已经形成完整成熟的产业链和市场环境.Addressing the imperative of carbon reduction goals,China's power sector is confronted with the urgent need to transition from coal-dependent energy generation to renewable alternatives such as wind and photovoltaic power.However,this transition introduces challenges associated with the intermittent nature of these renewable sources,destabilizing the power grid as their share in the energy mix expands.Simultaneously,China's power demand continues its rapid expansion.This confluence of expanding demand and shifting supply paradigms necessitates enhanced flexibility within the power grid to ensure its safety and stability.Two viable solutions to this complex scenario are the integration of"battery energy storage system(BESS)with wind and photovoltaic power"and the amalgamation of"carbon capture and storage(CCS)with coal power",both presenting flexibility without associated carbon emissions.In light of these options,this study constructs a comprehensive simulation model,based on hourly load curves,accounting for carbon emissions,escalating power requirements,and renewable energy targets to attain a balanced power production and consumption equilibrium.Upon evaluating the merits of"CCS+coal power"and"BESS+wind and PV power",it becomes evident that the latter exhibits a cost advantage at lower renewable energy source(RES)penetration rates,while"CCS+coal power"becoming increasingly economical as RES penetration deepens.It is resonable to conclude that the deployment of both"CCS+coal power"and"BESS+wind and PV power"demands focused attention.In paving the way for a sustainable energy landscape,equal emphasis should be placed on nurturing an enabling environment for"CCS+coal power",allowing it to mature and capitalize when its cost competitiveness timing came.

关 键 词：碳捕获与封存 储能 煤电 电力系统低碳转型 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]