突发扰动事件下原油供应链风险模拟与调控研究——基于系统动力学方法  

Simulation and regulation study on crude oil supply chain risk under disruptive events:Based on system dynamics approach

作　　者：蒋含明[1] 胡灵芝 陈洪章 袁红林[1] JIANG Hanming;HU Lingzhi;CHEN Hongzhang;YUAN Honglin(School of International Economics and Politics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China;Think Tank Construction Center,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China;Institute of Economic and Social Development,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学国际经济与政治学院,南昌330013 [2]江西财经大学智库建设中心,南昌330013 [3]江西财经大学经济与社会发展研究院,南昌330013

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2025年第1期326-344,共19页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72273057,72163009);江西省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(JD23103);江西省研究生创新专项资金(YC2023-B159)。

摘　　要：原油是关系国家经济和安全的重要一次性能源.定量模拟评估原油供应链风险,研究如何制定和完善突发扰动事件下的调控措施,是保障我国原油供应链安全和经济增长的基础.基于此,首先在分析影响原油供应链安全国内外因素的基础上,借助系统动力学方法构建反映原油供应链系统风险因素间相互作用关系的调控模型.通过模拟仿真,评估突发扰动事件发生时,长、短期调控措施分别对原油供应链风险和GDP恢复率产生的影响.其次,利用仿真模型调试出满足GDP恢复率最优的多环节调控组合和调控尺度,分析这些组合措施下的原油供应链风险变动情况,以揭示调控组合措施搭配和调控尺度变化规律.结果表明:1)相对于单独实施长、短期调控措施,两者搭配实施能够更好地抑制原油供应链风险,提升GDP恢复率,且对风险的控制效应随着长期调控措施尺度的增加而提升.2)长期调控措施对原油供应链风险的抑制作用存在直接效应和间接效应,间接效应主要是通过相机减少短期调控措施种类与尺度而实现的.3)原油的紧急进口可行性是影响国内原油供应链风险的关键因素,紧急进口可行性越低,国内原油供应链风险越高.Crude oil is a vital disposable energy source that is closely linked to the economic and security interests of nations.The quantitative simulation and assessment of risks in the crude oil supply chain,along with research on the formulation and improvement of regulatory measures in response to sudden disruptive events,constitute the foundation of safeguarding the security of China's crude oil supply chain and economic growth.Firstly,base on analyzing domestic and international factors influencing the security of the crude oil supply chain,a regulatory model reflecting the interaction between risk factors in the crude oil supply chain system is constructed using the system dynamics method.Through simulation,the study evaluate the impact of long-term and short-term regulatory measures on the risk of the crude oil supply chain and GDP recovery rate during the occurrence of sudden disturbances.Secondly,using the simulation model,multi-stage regulatory combinations and regulatory scales that optimize the GDP recovery rate are identified and fine-tuned.The variations in the risk of the crude oil supply chain under these combination measures are analyzed to reveal the patterns of combination and scale changes in regulatory measures.The results indicate that:1)The implementation of both long-term and short-term control measures is more effective than the implementation of either measure alone in inhibiting the risk of the crude oil supply chain and improving the GDP recovery rate.Furthermore,the control effect on the risk increases with the increase in the scale of long-term control measures.2)Long-term control measures on the crude oil supply chain risk suppression effect exists both directly and indirectly,and the indirect effect is mainly achieved through reducing the type and scale of short-term control measures.3)The feasibility of emergency crude oil imports is a crucial factor influencing the risk of the domestic crude oil supply chain.The lower the feasibility of emergency crude oil imports,the higher the risk.

关 键 词：原油供应链风险 突发扰动事件 风险调控 系统动力学 

分 类 号：C94[自然科学总论—系统科学] F764.1[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X820.4