“双碳”目标下中国能源结构变化趋势预测  

Forecasting Trends in China′s Energy Structure under the"Dual Carbon"Goal

作　　者：陈英超 万家杭 Chen Yingchao;Wan Jiahang(Shandong Technology and Business University,Yantai Shandong 264005)

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院,山东烟台264005

出　　处：《中外能源》2025年第3期1-6,共6页Sino-Global Energy

摘　　要：2023年,中国能源结构中煤炭、石油、天然气和非化石能源占比分别为55.3%、18.3%、8.7%和17.7%。在梳理总结已有研究成果的基础上,综合考虑政策导向、技术创新、能源发展特点等诸多因素,对中国2060年前能源结构的变化趋势进行预测。研究发现:在2035年之前,煤炭仍是最主要的能源,但在能源结构中的占比逐年下降,煤炭消费量将在2030年左右达峰后开始下降。石油作为重要的化工原料和交通能源,其占比将因新能源汽车以及终端用能电气化的进一步发展而缓慢下降。天然气凭借清洁高效的特点,占比将先升后降,在中短期内需求会上升。能源转型的本质是非化石能源对传统化石能源的替代,依托终端电气化发展和技术进步,非化石能源占比将逐年上升,到2050年达到60%,替代煤炭成为最主要的能源。但非化石能源发展受限于终端用能电气化率以及储能技术等,这可能在很大程度上影响非化石能源的发展速度。综合来看,预测未来中国能源结构为:2030年煤炭、石油、天然气、非化石能源4种能源占比依次为46%、17%、12%、25%;2060年4种能源占比依次为6%、7%、7%、80%。In 2023,coal,oil,natural gas,and non-fossil energy accounted for 55.3%,18.3%,8.7%,and 17.7%of China′s energy mix,respectively.Based on summarizing the research results,the change trend of China′s energy structure before 2060 is predicted comprehensively considering the policy orientation,technological innovation,energy development characteristics,and other factors.The study found that coal will still be the most important energy source before 2035,but its proportion in the energy structure will decline year by year,and coal consumption will peak around 2030 and begin to decline.Oil is an important chemical raw material and transportation energy,and its proportion will slowly drop due to the further development of new energy vehicles and terminal energy electrification.The proportion of natural gas will rise first and then fall,and the demand for it will increase in the short and medium term because of its characteristics of being clean and ef-ficient.The essence of energy transformation is non-fossil energy instead of traditional fossil energy.Relying on the development of terminal electrification and technological progress,the proportion of non-fossil energy will increase year by year and reach 60%by 2050,replacing coal as the most important energy source.However,the development of non-fossil energy is limited by the electrification rate of terminal energy usage and ener-gy storage technology,which may greatly affect the development speed of non-fossil energy.In summary,China′s energy structure in the future is predicted as follows:in 2030,coal,oil,natural gas and non-fossil energy will account for 46%,17%,12%and 25%respectively;in 2060,the four energy sources will account for 6%,7%,7%and 80%respectively.

关 键 词：能源结构 煤炭 石油 天然气 非化石能源 变化趋势 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]