气候变化下山西某风电项目未来风能资源的评估  

Assessment of Future Wind Energy Resources for a Wind Power Project in Shanxi Province Under Climate Change

作　　者：蔡超 李美姗 高雪琴 许嘉钰[1] Cai Chao;Li Meishan;Gao Xueqin;Xu Jiayu(School of Environment,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084;Beijing Sanyi Sichuang Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100020;The University of Sydney,Darlington NSW 2006,Australia)

机构地区：[1]清华大学环境学院,北京100084 [2]北京三易思创科技有限公司,北京100020 [3]悉尼大学,澳大利亚新南威尔士州悉尼NSW 2006

出　　处：《中外能源》2025年第3期21-29,共9页Sino-Global Energy

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“报废电动汽车智能拆解高值利用成套技术及集成示范”(编号:2022YFC3902605)。

摘　　要：目前针对未来风能资源变化的研究,主要为全球或全国的大尺度范围。利用WRF/CALMET耦合模式对山西某风电项目进行降尺度模拟,选取2010年、2022年、2035年、2060年4个年份,以该项目区域范围内风速最大的5月份和风速最小的8月份作为典型月份,计算其风速和风功率密度,分析历史和未来场景下风能资源的变化趋势。结果表明:在历史场景下,模拟结果相比实测数据偏大,其中月平均风速整体偏差1.34m/s,均方根误差为1.62m/s;风功率密度整体偏差185W/m^(2),均方根误差为196W/m^(2)。但二者变化趋势相似,可以反映项目范围内风能资源的变化趋势。在未来SSP126场景(低强迫情景)下,不同月份风能资源有不同的变化趋势,其中5月风速和风功率密度有增大趋势,而8月则有减小趋势,且高度越高,增大或减小趋势越明显。气候变化引起亚洲地区春季海陆气压差变大、夏季海陆气压差变小,从而解释了5月和8月风能资源变化趋势不一致的原因。WRF/CALMET模式结合CMIP6未来气候数据,可以对风电项目未来风能资源的变化趋势进行更为细致地评估,为风电机组选址提供科学依据。Current research on the changes in future wind energy resources is mainly on a global or national scale.By using a coupling WRF/CALMET model,the downscaling simulation of a wind power project in Shanxi Province was carried out.The years of 2010,2022,2035 and 2060 were selected.May and August,the month with the highest wind speed and the lowest wind speed respectively within the project area,were taken as the typical months to calculate the wind speed and the wind power density and to analyze the trend of wind energy resources in historical and future scenarios.The results show that in the historical scenario,the simulation results are higher than the measured data.The overall deviation of monthly average wind speed is1.34m/s,and the root-mean-square error is 1.62m/s.The overall deviation of wind power density is 185W/m^(2),and the root-mean-square error is 196W/m^(2).However,the trends of the two are similar,reflecting the trend of wind energy resources within the scope of the project.In the future SSP126 scenario(low forcing scenario),wind energy resources in different months have different trends.The wind speed and wind power density in-crease in May and decrease in August,and the higher the altitude,the more obvious the increasing or decreasing trend.Climate change leads to greater sea-land pressure difference in spring and smaller sea-land pressure difference in summer in Asia,which explains the inconsistent trends of wind energy resources in May and August.Combined with CMIP6 future climate data,the WRF/CALMET model can assess in detail the future trend of wind energy resources in wind power projects,providing a scientific basis for the location selection of wind turbines.

关 键 词：风能资源评估 风速 风功率密度 气候变化 WRF/CALMET 耦合模式 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]