气候经济复杂系统中的不确定性及其建模研究进展  

Advances in Modeling Uncertainty of Climate-Economy Complex System

作　　者：廖华[1,2,3] 郑国梁 Liao Hua;Zheng Guoliang(School of Management,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Beijing Laboratory of Carbon Neutral System Engineering,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理学院,北京100081 [2]北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100081 [3]北京理工大学碳中和系统工程北京实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2025年第1期273-286,共14页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(23AZD063);国家杰出青年科学基金项目(71925008);国家自然科学基金重大项目(72293600)。

摘　　要：对不确定性的处理是气候经济复杂系统建模的难点,也是诸多气候政策研究结论存在重大分歧的源头之一。归纳总结了气候经济复杂系统中自然气候、气候影响、社会经济、减缓与适应等模块中的不确定性并对其分类。在对不确定性的处理方法方面:对于风险型不确定性,随机动态规划正逐步替代经典的敏感性分析和蒙特卡洛模拟方法;对于模型模糊型和误用型不确定性,采用决策分析方法正成为新趋势。在不确定性的具体建模方面:(1)通常将简约的“碳-气候响应”集成到不确定性下的成本效益评估。(2)随机过程建模方法常用于模拟经济增长和技术进步的不确定性。(3)气候临界点等灾难性风险,以及气候变化的非经济损失陆续被纳入模型。(4)效用或福利的评价标准更注重对代际与代内公平,以及不确定性厌恶偏好的考量。(5)减排技术进步的内生化建模得到更多体现。(6)负排放技术、太阳地球工程技术可能成为未来不确定性建模研究的热点。模型求解困难仍是阻碍气候经济不确定性建模研究发展的瓶颈之一。今后的气候经济不确定性建模除了平衡机理相符性、数据可获性、计算可行性等方面以外,还需努力纳入不同层级决策者和群体的异质性及其博弈机制。Dealing with uncertainty in climate-economic modeling is a challenging task and a major point of disagreement in many climate policy studies. Uncertainty exists in both the natural climate system and the socioeconomic system,as well as in their interactions,such as the socio-economic impacts of climate change and human adaptation. In addition,the limited nature of human knowledge(uncertainty)regarding the complex climate economic systems also contributes to uncertainty in modeling. The study of uncertainty in climateeconomy complex systems has gained increasing attention since the development of the first fully meaningful climate-economy complex systems model by the Nobel Prize winner in economic sciences, William D Nordhaus,in the early 1990s. With the development of uncertainty decision theory and methodology,climate science, and computational technology, there have been many advances in the study of uncertainty in climate-economy complex systems. At the same time,there are still many challenges in the understanding of the mechanism of the system,model coupling,parameter calibration,solution algorithms and other aspects that need to be overcome. Climate-economy complex systems models generally consist of the climate system module,climate impact module,socio-economic system module,and mitigation and adaptation(climate policy)module,which are coupled into a closed-loop system. The key uncertainties are categorized and classified in these four key modules in the climate economy complex system, the research progress in handling uncertainties is summaried in system modeling,and the future research directions are explored, with a view to better support climate economy modeling and decision-making. In terms of methodologies to address uncertainty,the stochastic dynamic programming approach is gradually replacing the classical sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation methods for dealing with risk-based uncertainty in climate-economy models;and the decision analysis approach is emerging as a new trend for dealing

关 键 词：气候变化 气候经济系统 不确定性 决策分析 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学] F205