水-能源-粮食纽带系统的风险测度与韧性提升研究  

Risk Measurement and Resilience Improvement of Water-Energy-Food Coupling Systems

作　　者：宋洁 黄静思[1] 何冠楠 王剑晓 Song Jie;Huang Jingsi;He Guannan;Wang Jianxiao(Department of Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;National Engineering Laboratory for Big Data Analysis and Applications,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学工学院,北京100871 [2]北京大学大数据分析与应用技术国家工程实验室,北京100871

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2025年第1期323-334,共12页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72301007);国家自然科学基金重点项目(72342004)。

摘　　要：传统文献大多从可持续发展的视角,基于环境、地理、生态等学科研究水-能源-粮食纽带关联关系及长时间尺度下的系统演化。近年来伴随各类自然灾害、社会突发事件频次增多、强度加大,亟需探索水-能源-粮食纽带系统在小概率突发事件下的风险抵御能力与韧性提升策略。然而,在这一方面目前并没有形成系统性的理论框架,缺乏对这一问题的研究范式梳理与全局认识。因此,本文尝试基于系统工程与管理科学的学科视角,从机理建模、风险测度和韧性提升三个层面对水-能源-粮食纽带系统的量化研究文献进行全面总结,并结合大数据与人工智能技术的发展,探讨数智化技术通过跨尺度的风险测度、智能决策赋能水-能源-粮食纽带系统韧性研究的未来趋势。The traditional literature primarily examines the interplay between water, energy, and food in the context of sustainable development, drawing from disciplines like environment, geography, and ecology, as well as the long-term evolution of the system. In light of the escalating frequency and severity of natural and social emergencies, there is a pressing need to investigate strategies for enhancing the resilience and resistance of the water-energy-food linkage system to low probability emergencies. However, a comprehensive theoretical framework in this area is currently lacking, as well as research paradigms and a global understanding of the issue. Consequently, it seeks to comprehensively summarize quantitative research literature on the water-energy-food linkage system in this article, focusing on mechanism modeling, risk measurement, and resilience enhancement. Additionally, it explores the future trend of digital technology empowering resilience research in this field through cross-scale risk measurement and intelligent decision-making, leveraging the advancements in big data and artificial intelligence technology.

关 键 词：水-能源-粮食纽带 机理建模 风险测度 韧性评估 韧性提升 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学] C931[经济管理—管理学]