供给—需求冲击与北约防务结构重组——解释北约成员国军事投入的重心转移  

Supply-demand Shocks and NATO's Defense Structure Reorganization——Explaining the Emphasis Shift of NATO Members' Military Spending

作　　者：曾庆鸣 ZENG Qingming

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《欧洲研究》2025年第1期75-111,I0004,共38页Chinese Journal of European Studies

摘　　要：冷战期间,北约集团依赖于在欧洲部署大规模常规部队以维持与华约集团的战略平衡。2024年俄乌冲突的重大升级,重新将大规模欧洲常规地面战争带回北约视野。近十年来,北约总体军费规模持续扩张,相较于常规部队与作战人员投入,北约成员国军事投入重心转移主要表现为向高技术装备、新作战场域与新型武器系统不对称倾斜。这种防务结构重组的背后,存在来自供给—需求的多重驱动因素。本文构建了2010—2023年30个北约成员国军事投入结构的综合数据集,利用工具变量法、双重差分法等“准实验”设计,检验并解析北约成员国军事投入重心转移背后的供给—需求驱动因素。首先,俄乌冲突作为需求侧冲击,驱动了北约成员国装备—人员投入差距的急剧缩小。北约成员国避免正面“匹敌”俄罗斯,寻求在技术装备层面“以小博大”,对俄罗斯形成“技术型威慑”,应对欧洲潜在大规模战争升级。其次,武器转让与军火贸易等外源性防务供给冲击,推动了北约防务结构重组的进程。北约试图以不对称技术优势抵消俄罗斯在常规战争中的集中火力、战略纵深多层防御和持久消耗战韧性的优势,体现从“资源消耗”转向“技术消耗”的意图。最后,相较于“老欧洲”成员国,差异化威胁感知作为干预变量,驱使“新欧洲”成员国在军事投入重心转移过程中采取更为彻底和激进的立场。During the Cold War,NATO relied on deploying large-scale conventional forces in Europe to maintain strategic balance with the Warsaw Pact Organization. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2024 has brought back large-scale conventional ground warfare and even nuclear war in Europe in NATO's focus. Over the past decade,the shift in military spending by the NATO members have primarily manifested itself in an asymmetric tilt toward high-tech equipment,new operational domains and advanced weapon systems,behind which multiple factors from both supply and demand shocks played vital roles. This study constructs a comprehensive dataset on the defense structure of 30 NATO members from 2010to 2023,employing quasi-experimental designs of instrumental variable and difference-indifferences to examine the supply-demand shocks behind NATO members' shifting emphasis on military spending. Firstly,Russia-Ukraine conflict as a demand shock has driven a sharp narrowing of the gap between NATO member states on equipment and personnel spending. Secondly,exogenous defense supply shocks,centered on arms transfer and military trade,have propelled the process of NATO's defense restructuring. Lastly,compared to “Old Europe”,differentiated threat perceptions have acted as intervening shocks,which have driven “New Europe”to adopt a more thorough and aggressive posture in the shift of their military spending focus.

关 键 词：北约 军事投入 防务结构 俄乌冲突 威胁感知 

分 类 号：E161[军事—军事理论] D81[政治法律—国际关系]