跨越未来产业发展鸿沟的路径与政策  

Paths and policies for crossing the future industrial development chasm

作　　者：王昶[1] 赵必武 耿红军 卢锋华 WANG Chang;ZHAO Biwu;GENG Hongjun;LU Fenghua(Business School,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China;School of Public Affairs,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 210094,China;College of Business Administration,Hunan University of Finance and Economics,Changsha 410205,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,长沙410083 [2]南京理工大学公共事务学院,南京210094 [3]湖南财政经济学院工商管理学院,长沙410205

出　　处：《科技导报》2025年第2期117-124,共8页Science & Technology Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD106);国家社会科学基金青年项目(24CGL001);国家社会科学基金一般项目(23BGL035);深圳市战略研究合作课题(SZVUPZLYJ-202301)。

摘　　要：未来产业属于“新而待兴”、有望成长为战略性新兴产业的先导产业,是现代化产业体系的重要组成部分。首先剖析了未来产业的内涵与特征,沿着“现有产业未来化”与“未来技术产业化”2个方向,探讨了中国未来产业的发展鸿沟,分类设计了“老中育新”与“无中生有”的跨越路径与实施策略,提出了完善未来产业发展机制、搭建未来产业应用场景、构筑未来产业发展生态、加强未来产业敏捷治理的政策建议。In order to accelerate the cultivation of future industries and shape new development advantages,in this paper,a deep analysis of the connotation,characteristics,development chasm,and crossing paths of future industries was conducted through literature analysis with an inductive-deductive method.Being"new and to be developed",Future industries are the pilot industry to succeed in the strategic emerging industry and an important part of the modern industrial system.Future industries possess basic characteristics such as technological advancement,market immaturity,industry growth potential,spatial unevenness,and ecological dependence,and they develop synergistically along two main directions:"future-oriented transformation of existing industries"and"industrialization of future technologies".The former direction faces a dual chasm of the"medium technology trap"and the proliferation of disruptive technologies and requires to design a pathway of"nurturing the new through the old"that can drive the surpassing of technological innovation capabilities and accelerate the integration and application of disruptive technologies.The latter direction faces a dual chasm of the"valley of death"and the"Darwinian sea"and requires to design a pathway of"creating from nothing"that can drive major breakthroughs in scientific principles and construct future technology application ecosystems.Furthermore,policy recommendations were made,such as improving the development mechanism of future industries,establishing future industry application scenarios,building future industry development ecosystems,and enhancing agile governance of future industries.

关 键 词：未来产业 发展鸿沟 跨越路径 政策 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]